Only one game remains in the 2015 NFL season, so we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re looking at the quarterbacks who finished 11th to 15th this past season, and will judge how well they’ll finish next year compared to their stats this past season.
11. Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets, 285.20 points
Hype train: Just right
We doubt there will be much hype for Fitzpatrick, which should about where he should be for the 2016 season.
He benefited from a resurgence from Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and the Jets looked actually potent on the offensive side of the ball for most of the season.
Fitzpatrick shouldn’t be considered a weekly starter in fantasy football and we don’t believe experts or the general public will put Fitzpatrick into that role next year.
Sure, he had a solid year this season, but we don’t believe he will have a similar season. His expectations may be more than this past season when he entered 2015 ranked as the 29th quarterback. But it won’t be much higher, making his value correct.
12. Phillip Rivers, San Diego, 284.52 points
Hype train: Just right
If Rivers had continued his tear from the beginning of the season, then he would likely have too much hype heading into next season.
But Rivers is about what many expected heading into the season. He was a solid backup for fantasy owners and was one of the best options at quarterback in the first part of the season. He went for more than 20 points for five consecutive games from weeks 4 to 8.
Then he fell off predictably, since he was facing far better defenses. Against the top defenses, Rivers was a bad option in fantasy football. Against bottom-10 defenses, he was a solid option.
That kind of consistency makes him just right in the 15 to 18 range among quarterbacks. Don’t depend on him as a starting option, but he can offer solid depth for fantasy owners.
13. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay, 274.98 points
Hype train: Hop off…for now
Jameis Winston surprised many fantasy experts with his solid rookie campaign. He mustered more than 4,000 yards passing and it appears the sky is the limit for Winston.
But we’re hopping off his hype train. We don’t know what his ADP will be for next year, but we believe the general public will go too far in increasing Winston’s value.
Winston was good, but he still have some difficulty of taking care of the football. He finished with only 22 touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions. He was aided by six rushing touchdowns, which can’t be counted on next year since he’s a pocket passer.
He should be a quality option in the future, but we’re not ready to make him our regular starter next season. Unfortunately for many fantasy owners, they’ll put Winston into their starting role.
14. Derek Carr, Oakland, 271.20 points
Hype train: All Aboard
Carr came into this season with little fanfare in the fantasy football realm, but he turned in a decent performance.
He was a good option, but also struggled at times, too. He registered five games with more than 20 fantasy points in the first nine weeks. However, he showed some growing pains toward the end of the season. From weeks 10 to 17, he managed only one game with more than 20 fantasy points.
That’s to be expected with Carr at this point in his career. We expect him to continually get better and with his skill position players getting one more year of experience, his numbers should increase next season.
He entered this season as the 25th ranked quarterback. That will rise next season, but his value will still be solid for fantasy owners.
15. Alex Smith, Kansas City, 271.24 points
Hype train: Just right
The biggest thing about Smith is that the expectations can’t be too high. He went for more than 20 points only three times during the season.
But he registered single digits only once.
He’s not going to blow away the fantasy competition, but his value is more suited toward the backup role. He will get you points, but they will have to come through touchdown passes. He doesn’t throw for many yards (he had less than 3,500 yards this season), so that is a drawback.
He will, though, provide rushing yards as he garnered 498 yards rushing this season.
Smith is a player to wait on, and if past drafts are any indication, he should be available late. He’s not the best backup, but he’s a viable option during bye weeks or if your starter has a bad matchup. Last year he went off as the 22nd ranked quarterback and had an ADP of 162. That should be quality value once again next season if he remains in the same range.
