The end of the year always brings more questions than answers for handicappers. Teams sometimes don’t play up to their capability, thanks to either resting starters or giving up for the year.

Also, some teams choke with the opportunity at the playoffs within reach. Those outside influences make it more difficult to predict which teams will show up and which ones will stay home.

With two weeks remaining, I’m still above .500, albeit barely. Let’s hope for a big week in week 16. Here’s the week 16 NFL best bets.

The Buffalo Bills should be a solid pick for the NFL week 16 best bets. Flickr/Keith Allison

Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS

Overall: 45-41-3 ATS

Miami at Buffalo (-3.5)

Neither team does a great job at stopping the run. But only one team is elite at running the football.

Nobody runs better than the Bills in the NFL. Buffalo owns the league’s most potent rushing attack and LeSean McCoy is not the only option the Bills use to gash opposing defenses. Tyrod Taylor has a problem completing passes, but he won’t have to do much in this game, which I assume will be low-scoring.

Much of the reason I like Buffalo so much in week 16 is that the Dolphins will trot out Matt Moore as their signal caller. He looked the part in week 15 against the New York Jets…but let’s face it, that’s the Jets.

The Bills are a top-10 pass defense and the Dolphins haven’t done much through the air in recent weeks. In fact, the Dolphins haven’t done a great deal since last beating the Bills on Oct. 23.

Miami is 6-1 since beating Buffalo, but its opponents are a scintillating 23-60-1. The Dolphins have been beating up on a bunch of lower-tier NFL teams.

Buffalo doesn’t fit that mold and they’re my favorite team when their backs are against the wall. This is a solid number set by oddsmakers, but I still like Buffalo to cover, thanks to a rushing attack that won’t be stopped. — Go Chalk with Buffalo

Detroit (+7) at Dallas

What a difference a week makes.

We were all wondering if the Cowboys were for real after losing their second game of the season. And everyone believed Dak Prescott had hit the rookie wall.

Well, it appears everyone is backtracking from those statements.

The Cowboys are a legit No. 1 seed in the NFC, but I’m still bullish on Detroit’s ability to keep games close. Week 15 was only the second time this season that Detroit has played a game that didn’t feature a final score within seven points.

And oddsmakers generally hate the Lions for some reason. They’re consistently undervalued, despite featuring a better-than-advertised defense and a solid passing game. That passing game should have its way with the Cowboys’ leaky pass defense, too.

Dallas has been in plenty of national spotlight games of late. This is another one since it’s on Monday Night Football. I expect a little sluggishness, especially with Detroit’s ability to stop the run, so this will be closer than many believe. Dallas struggles out of the gate, and this game is still in doubt late in the fourth quarter. — Go Against The Chalk with Detroit

Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina

The party is over for Carolina.

The Panthers still have a slim hope for the playoffs, but it’s not going to happen. And after Saturday’s game, that slim hope will officially be over.

First off, Carolina has to play on a short week after its victory Monday night against Washington. Secondly, the Falcons are a better team, and will show that on Saturday.

Atlanta can run and pass the ball against pretty much any defense. That spells trouble for Carolina, which owns the worst passing defense in the NFL. Atlanta isn’t great on the defensive side of the ball either, but it does enough in getting after the quarterback, that Cam Newton could have trouble staying on his feet.

The Falcons are the better team and it will show that in this one. Go with the better team in this one. — Go Chalk with Atlanta

Bonus Bets

Indianapolis (+4) at Oakland — Indianapolis can throw the football and Oakland doesn’t do a great job at stopping it. There’s something not right in Raider land and I trust Andrew Luck with his back against the wall in this one. — Go Against The Chalk with Indianapolis

Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans — Tampa Bay was still in that game against Dallas last week, despite turning the ball over more than usual. I can’t trust the Saints defense, so I’ll go with Tampa Bay getting back on the winning train after losing a close one to the Cowboys. — Go Against The Chalk with Tampa Bay

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5) — Pittsburgh is on a roll and shouldn’t have much trouble with Baltimore. This game stays close for a half, but Pittsburgh’s offense eventually overwhelms the Ravens. — Go Chalk with Pittsburgh

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