Week 1 of the NFL season went well with a 5-1 record against the spread. Just don’t ask me how I did in college football for week 2.
It was the normal routine for prognosticating in the NFL for week 1. Find teams being undervalued who are on the road (Oakland, San Diego and Minnesota), and go with home teams that should beat that three-point home cushion awarded to home teams (Baltimore and New York Jets).
But just as in week 1, week 2 is a land mine because we really don’t know which teams will emerge as success stories and disappointments.
Here’s the week 2 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 5-1 ATS
Season: 5-1 ATS
Tennessee (+5.5) at Detroit
Hello knee-jerk reaction. That’s how the general public is responding to Detroit’s week 1 win and Tennessee’s week 1 loss.
The Titans had a tough matchup. Minnesota was motivated to prove all the experts wrong and the Vikings are a team one year removed from what should have been an appearance in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs.
Tennessee will be improved this season, but to believe the Vikings were less than a field goal better than a team that finished last season with only three wins, was a misstep by oddsmakers and the betting public.
Now that everyone has hopped off the Titans train, it’s time to back them this week against the Lions. Detroit’s defense is horrendous still and it won’t get any better this week against a Tennessee team poised to show it’s better than it looked last week.
Tennessee is going to slow down this game, forcing Detroit to churn out yardage instead of spreading it all around the field like it did last week against a hapless Indianapolis defense.
Detroit is legendary for being inconsistent. That trend continues this week when Tennessee proves this week what many believed would happen entering this season. – Go Against The Chalk with Tennessee
Philadelphia at Chicago (-3)
So you’re telling me I get an improved running and passing game, far superior defense and a rookie making his first road start on Monday night?
Book the Bears.
The Eagles probably had the most generous first game they could have hoped for with Carson Wentz as the quarterback. Cleveland is really bad up front, so it couldn’t disrupt Wentz from having to make decisions under pressure and force him to move his eyes to the second and third options in the passing game.
The Bears can do that. Chicago is vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball and it made Houston work hard to churn out yards in the opener. The Bears will be equally tough on Philadelphia’s offense, which can’t be considered in the same breath as Houston’s.
I can’t believe I’m only having to give away a field goal in this game. Don’t be fooled by week 1 results. We thought the Bears would be better in 2016 and that can still happen. There’s no shame in losing at Houston in week 1. The Eagles will show their true colors and will show why the NFL isn’t about what you did last week. — Go Chalk with Chicago
Indianapolis (+6) at Denver
I’m really setting myself up for failure, but like I said, week 2 is all about feeling out which teams will surprise, and which teams will disappoint.
I entered the season with the mindset that Denver would take a step back, while the Colts would be improved from last season. Week 1 showed that thought process could be flawed, but as I’ve explained countless times, don’t overreaact to week 1 of the NFL season.
Carolina was by far the better team for the majority of that week 1 Thursday night game against the Broncos. And the Colts’ defense was bad, but the offense moved the ball at will. If the defense stopped Detroit in the final minute of the game, do we really believe this spread would be almost seven points?
Why are we giving Trevor Siemian so much love after one week, where he threw two interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 69.1? Don’t forget, Carolina was starting a rookie cornerback.
So I’m not joining the love parade for Siemian. What I also get in this game is a renewed focus by the officiating crew to make sure Luck doesn’t get killed in the pocket. The Broncos can’t head-hunt in this game after week 1’s debacle, allowing the Colts to generate some movement with the passing game. — Go Against The Chalk with Indianapolis
Bonus Bets
Kansas City at Houston (-2) – Something bothered me greatly about Kansas City’s opening win against San Diego. They couldn’t stop the Chargers and were exposed on the defensive side of the ball. They were outplayed and that offense didn’t do anything until it was time for desperation. The Texans get revenge for two blowouts from last year. — Go Chalk with Houston
Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh — This is always one of the best games of the season. I was concerned with Pittsburgh’s suspensions and injuries in week 1. I was wrong about those concerns. But it takes me awhile to learn anything, so I’ll double down on those issues rearing their ugly head and back the Bengals, who I was very impressed with in week 1. — Go Against The Chalk with Cincinnati
Jacksonville (+3) at San Diego — No Keenan Allen means big problems for Philip Rivers. The loss last week doesn’t bother me as much as Allen’s injury. Jacksonville can rush the passer and don’t worry about the Jaguars traveling coast-to-coast. It’s early in the season and the game is in the late afternoon window. — Go Against The Chalk with Jacksonville
