It always amazes me how I’m generally never on the right end of a bad beat.

Did you watch the Indianapolis game? It was at least going to be a push until Andrew Luck fumbled at the goal line in the final minutes, allowing Denver to come away with a miracle cover.

That was par for the course for week 2. After a dominating week 1, I slipped a bit, thinking the Bears and Jaguars were better than they actually are. I won’t make the same mistakes in week 3.

We’ll get back to the winning ways this week. Here’s the week 3 NFL best bets.

The Washington Redskins should get your attention in the week 3 NFL best bets. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1DWtRRp/Joseph Glorioso
The Washington Redskins should get your attention in the week 3 NFL best bets. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1DWtRRp/Joseph Glorioso

Last Week: 2-4 ATS

Overall: 7-5 ATS

Washington (+4.5) at New York Giants

Matchups are sometimes all about desperation. That’s a main motivator in the NFL and I get that all over the board in week 3.

The Redskins are in desperation mode. Everybody is writing them off. The team hates the quarterback. The coach is throwing people under the bus. And pretty much everybody’s hopping aboard the Giants’ runaway train of expectations.

Not so fast.

The Redskins still won the NFC East last season. And in doing so, it went above and beyond the call of duty on the road, winning three of the final four regular season games on the road.

And let’s not declare the Giants as the class of the East all of sudden. New York had a good victory in week 1 on the road against Dallas, but it looked pretty average last week against a New Orleans team never known to do well on the road.

The defense is there, but the offense doesn’t do much in terms of scoring touchdowns. That will haunt them at some point. Both offenses are relatively the same, with the ability to move the ball from 20 to 20, but unable to punch it into the endzone.

Everyone has sold their Washington stock for the season. Buy low this week and watch Washington keep this within a field goal. — Go Against The Chalk with Washington

Don't give up yet on the Bills in the week 3 NFL best bets. Flickr/Erik Drost
Don’t give up yet on the Bills in the week 3 NFL best bets. Flickr/Erik Drost

Arizona at Buffalo (+5)

I know Buffalo has looked bad this season. But you’re telling me I get a team that narrowly missed the playoffs last season as a five-point underdog at home against a West Coast team playing on the road in the early afternoon?

Wow, sign me up.

To me, the jury is still out on the Cardinals. I expect less than last year and Arizona showed that in game one, and then proceeded to trounce Tampa Bay in week 2. But I’m not overreacting to that beat down. The Buccaneers were playing back-to-back road games with a youthful roster. That’s a recipe for disaster in the NFL, especially for a team going cross-country after a road game.

While everyone’s expectations are sky-high for the Cardinals, I’m just not there. Maybe they’ll prove me wrong, but they’ll have to show me more than what they’ve done in the first two weeks for me to change my mind.

And while the Bills have been dreadful, they’ve been in a tough spot. They had to travel to Baltimore in week 1 against a better-than-advertised Ravens team. And then they had to turn around on a Thursday night against a Jets team that I believe is well equipped at winning several games this season.

Oddsmakers are giving away too many points in this one. — Go Against The Chalk with Buffalo

Los Angeles (+5.5) at Tampa Bay

This might come back to haunt me, but I’m not selling my stock in the Rams yet, either.

After week 1, it was as if many believed Los Angeles would compete with Cleveland for the first pick in the 2017 NFL draft. But the Rams then turned around in week 2 and beat a Seattle team that many believe will win the NFC.

We could dismiss last week’s showing as the Rams just playing well against the Seahawks. That’s true, but it’s more than that. Los Angeles isn’t a bottom-dweller. They haven’t been for years, but we immediately jumped to that conclusion after week 1.

The defense is a top-flight unit in the NFL and will show that once again Sunday against the Buccaneers. I firmly believe Tampa Bay is improved from recent years, but this game shouldn’t be more than a field goal spread. The game will be slow and Tampa Bay won’t be able to chuck the ball all over the field.

The Rams get on the touchdown board for the season and this stays closer than many believe. — Go Against The Chalk with Los Angeles

Bonus Bets

Denver at Cincinnati (-3) — How good is Trevor Siemian? I don’t know but we’ll find out a lot more this week with his first road game. The Bengals should be considered as a top-four team in the AFC and will show that this week against the Broncos. — Go Chalk With Cincinnati

Oakland (+1.5) at Tennessee — I was all over Tennessee last week. And for three quarters, I believed that was a major misstep on my part. But Detroit did what Detroit does and it lost the game. If this game requires a lot of scoring, I don’t believe Tennessee has enough to keep up with Oakland’s potent offense. — Go Against The Chalk with Oakland

Detroit (+8) at Green Bay — I need to see more out of Green Bay before I give the benefit of the doubt in covering more than a touchdown. Detroit can sling it all over the field and had it not been for an egregious amount of penalties, the Lions would be 2-0 entering this week. Detroit is the ultimate team at playing up and down to its competition. — Go Against The Chalk with Detroit

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