I need to move to Las Vegas if I’m going to keep going 5-1 against the spread each week.
Two out of my three weeks have totaled a combined record of 10-2 ATS. My years of handicapping have shown me that’s not necessarily a number I can keep up, but last year featured pretty solid success, so who knows?
Last week I loved underdogs, so that’s why I was likely rewarded with such a good record. This week is a different story. I like some favorites, with big spreads, so hold on for a wild Sunday.
Last Week: 5-1 ATS
Overall: 12-6 ATS
Cleveland at Washington (-8)
The betting public is hopping aboard the Redskins in this matchup. Normally, I would run away screaming, but this game is ripe for a blowout.
I know we all feel good about the heartwarming story the Browns have been on for the last two weeks. They jumped to a big lead against Baltimore early in week 2 and then competed right to the very end against Miami in week 3, missing a field goal at the end of regulation.
The experts are believing that Cleveland is better than we gave them credit for, especially since that week 1 loss was against a better-than-advertised Philadelphia squad.
But that’s why experts don’t know anything about handicapping. Cody Kessler was a third-string quarterback for a reason on a terrible Cleveland offense. You’d be surprised how many times that new quarterbacks do really well in the opening game and then fall flat on their face in game two, thanks to coaches having more tape on how the offense will utilize him.
The Redskins have more tape and are now aware of how Cleveland is attempting every trick in the bag to try to move that offense. Terrelle Pryor is a wide receiver/quarterback on many plays.
That’s not a way to consistently move the ball in the NFL and that will show this week against Washington. Cleveland’s defense is really bad, just look at Baltimore being able to move the ball on them in week 2.
And what has me frightened for Cleveland’s chances is this is the third road game in four weeks for a team not known for solid veteran leadership. NFL teams going on the road that much are bound to have a letdown.
Cleveland crashes back to earth and Washington moves the ball at will. — Go Chalk with Washington
Oakland at Baltimore (-3.5)
It seems that I have themes with these weekly best bets, so here’s another opportunity for me to explain why another team in the midst of three out of four roads games is in trouble in week 4.
Oakland is not known for consistent play. It will improve as they age, but the Raiders’ young players just don’t always play the way you would think they would play. You would have expected a lot of points last week against Tennessee. Instead, we saw a Raiders team struggle to move the ball.
Two weeks ago, you would have thought the Raiders would have beaten the Falcons. However, we know more now and know that the Falcons are pretty good and the Raiders are still plagued by the inconsistency that has haunted them for the last few years.
But if you think you’re going to get a well-rested, professional football team in week 4 from the Raiders, look at this early season schedule — at New Orleans, home against Atlanta, at Tennessee and at Baltimore. That’s a disaster for a West Coast team.
What makes matters worse is that Baltimore is the real deal. I’ve been on the Ravens bandwagon since the offseason when I predicted they had to be better than last year when injuries ravaged their lineup. They are better and will feature a defense unlike anything the Raiders have seen this season.
I have to give up more than field goal, which hurts a little with such a low-volume offense in Baltimore. But I don’t see the Raiders being ready to compete for four quarters after such a treacherous schedule. — Go Chalk with Baltimore
Los Angeles Rams (+8) at Arizona
People must think the Rams are this two- to- three-win team in the NFL. That’s the only explanation of why the Rams should be getting more than a touchdown in this game.
I know what happened in week 1. We all do. But forget about that. It’s the same story from last year with Minnesota when the Vikings were abysmal in week 1 and had spreads against them each week based on that outcome.
Minnesota ended last year with the best record against the spread, and is continuing to demolish the number this year, too.
OK, back to the Rams. Los Angeles has a real-deal defense. It has for the last few years and competes with some of the better teams in the NFL. It’s just the offense that occasionally lets it down, which happened in week 1 and would have happened in week 2 had it not been for an extraordinary effort by the defense.
Since 2011, the Rams and Cardinals have played 10 games, with seven of those games in which the Rams would cover a touchdown spread.
Offenses hate when pass rushers can disrupt the passing game. The Rams have been able to do that in the past. I’m not sold on Arizona being the same team it has been in the past two years. This is a divisional game and the Rams should be fine on back-to-back road trips, since this basically right next door to their home field. — Go Against The Chalk with Los Angeles
Bonus Bets
Tennessee (+7) at Houston — The betting public is overextending themselves on this. The line opened at 4.5 and is now at a touchdown. Houston is the better team, but it’s a divisional game with two bad offenses. Defenses rule the day and that makes me nervous supporting any team giving away seven points. — Go Against The Chalk with Tennessee
Indianapolis (-3) vs. Jacksonville — Once again, the betting public moved this line like crazy, taking the Jaguars from a 2.5-point favorite to the current number. The Colts have Andrew Luck and the Jaguars have Blake Bortles. That has shown to be a problem in the early going. The Colts go overseas and beat the Jags. — Go Chalk with Indianapolis
Carolina (-3) at Atlanta — I’m a little nervous about Carolina, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt in the early season. The Panthers have played the two best defenses in the NFL in two of the first three weeks. Atlanta is coming off of a road trip to Oakland and road Monday Night Football game against New Orleans. They won’t be able to stop Carolina. — Go Chalk with Carolina
