Only one game remains in the 2015 NFL season, so we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re looking at five running backs who finished first to fifth in fantasy points. We’ll see what their chances are next season in putting up more points for fantasy owners.
1. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta, 243.40 points
Hype train: Hop off
The hype will be too much for Freeman next season. And we don’t expect him to turn in a performance anywhere near what he turned in this season.
Freeman finished with the most points among running backs, but his yardage wasn’t near the top running backs in the NFL. He is a touchdown dependent running back, who happened to rattle off one of the best six-game stretches in recent memory.
From weeks three to eight, he totaled more than 100 yards in each contest and went over 200 once. He tallied 10 touchdowns during the streak.
The only problem was that he wasn’t a consistent top-tier scorer. From weeks 9 to 17, he failed to register more than 100 total yards in five of seven games. He recorded four touchdowns and two fumbles during that span, too.
Freeman was a flash in the pan who won’t have a similar season that he had this past year. He will grade out as a first-round pick next year, which puts him off limits for our fantasy team.
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota, 230.70 points
Hype train: Hop off
Call it a hunch, but we don’t see the same production out of Peterson next season.
Minnesota is going to have to further the development of Teddy Bridgewater, meaning that Peterson will have to see the ball less next season. He rushed the ball 327 times in the regular season this year, outdistancing the second-place runner by 39 carries.
That can’t continue next year. The Vikings have to look to their future and at some point, that won’t feature Peterson.
He won’t completely drop off, but we anticipate a slip in production next season. He wore down toward the end of 2015 with a bad offensive line and defenses keying in on him. He rushed for more than 100 yards only once in the final five games and that’s something to keep an eye on for next year.
He was one of the few running backs fantasy owners could trust this season, but we’re not backing him as a top-five option next year in fantasy drafts.
3. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay, 199.30 points
Hype train: Just right
Martin will likely land in that end of the first round, beginning of the second round spot for fantasy drafts, which should be a good time to draft him.
Martin finished second in yardage this past season, which is a good sign, and didn’t find the end zone much. Although we’d like to see him find more touchdowns, we like the fact he was still able to churn out that many fantasy points with little production in the touchdown department.
He has the ability to improve, which can’t be said for the top-two returning running backs.
Martin is a curious player, since he pretty much fell off the map for two seasons, only to rejuvenate his career. He put up consistent rushing totals, with more than 90 total yards in six of the final eight games. His biggest problem was turnovers as he fumbled five times.
He can clean that up and be a solid producer for fantasy owners next season.
4. DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh, 191.40 points
Hype train: Hop off
We’re only hopping off because we doubt Williams will even start next season. He will be a great backup option to create depth on your fantasy roster, but we’re not sure what his average draft position will be next year, so we’re siding with hopping off.
There will likely be that fantasy owner that looks at this past year as a clear indication of top-quality value. However, if Williams doesn’t see the field, then his value will diminish greatly.
He was a solid replacement in the running back department for the Steelers this season, but we fail to see how he could be utilized next year. Even if he finds a new home and starts as running back, we still don’t see him putting up these kind of numbers. He was a product of a solid offensive system, so we’re backing away from Williams, even if he has a middle-round grade.
5. Todd Gurley, St. Louis, 187.40 points
Hype train: All Aboard
We can probably make the argument that Gurley will be the top option in all of fantasy football next season. And if that’s the case, you should pick him up for your team.
He has zero competition for carries and is an every-down back. That’s almost impossible to find in the NFL. He also was playing behind an average at best offensive line, which should get an upgrade in the offseason if the Rams believe they can contend.
Gurley will only continue to get better and that will be evident next season. He will own a first-round grade, so don’t expect to get him in the second round of next year’s fantasy football draft. And be prepared with a top-five pick to nab him off the draft board. You won’t be sorry that you did.
