We went above .500 again last week in our NFL Lockness Monsters.
Our 3-2 record helped us keep pace among the teams competing for the Westgate Supercontest in Las Vegas, featuring hundreds of the best handicappers in the NFL. Our record of 23-12 against the spread is four games out of second place in the contest, and would still be striking distance for money, if we were actually involved in the contest.
We mentioned last week that games were getting tougher to predict and that should be the case again this week. But there are a few matchups that should be able to be exploited.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Season: 23-12 ATS
New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders
This line keeps creeping toward the Jets and we don’t blame the betting public.
We understand that New York is traveling from coast-to-coast, but the Jets are a better team than the Oakland Raiders. Let’s not get too excited about Oakland’s win last week. We were extremely confident in that game last week based on Oakland coming off a bye and San Diego going to the wire for two consecutive weeks.
As we mentioned, let’s not take too much stock in last week’s blowout in San Diego. And the Jets competed well against New England last week and showed it can compete against the NFL’s best.
This matchup is completely in New York’s side. The Raiders have played two teams with top defenses — Cincinnati and Denver. In both games, the Raiders struggled to move the ball.
New York will arguably bring the best defense of those teams and we just don’t see the inexperienced Raiders coming back after a big win last week. Don’t worry about the East Coast travel. It’s not as bad going from east to west and the Jets should take care of business against the Raiders.
Tennessee Titans (+4.5) at Houston Texans
We know it’s time for the Texans to finally look good in a game. But don’t take the bait.
The Texans will once again have to live without Arian Foster and against the Titans, that should be a big blow. The Titans have a legitimate defense and it was on display last week against the Atlanta Falcons.
Tennessee allows the second-fewest passing yards per game, and one of the reasons for that number, is that teams don’t generally pass against the Titans. Teams are attempting the least amount of passes in the NFL against the Titans on a per-game basis.
Teams are running the football far more and there are opportunities to run the football. However, the Texans pretty much ignore the running game when Foster is hurt, so either Houston has to change its gameplan or suffer the consequences.
We anticipate more suffering for Houston fans. — Go against the chalk with Tennessee
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
This game has blowout written all over it.
The Buccaneers blew a big lead last week at Washington. This marks the second straight road game for Tampa Bay and Atlanta is coming off a game where they dominated defensively, but struggled at times on offense.
The Bucs haven’t been good on defense and with back-to-back road games, we don’t see that getting better. We understand that Tennessee isn’t lighting the world on fire on offense, but it couldn’t move the ball at all against the Falcons.
This is a good matchup for Atlanta, which should be able to run the football against Tampa Bay’s poor rush defense.
We’re staying away from Tampa Bay in this game and going with Atlanta to show more on offense than it has in the previous few weeks. — Go chalk with Atlanta
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
We like Arizona as a football team. But there’s something not right with its ability to close out opponents.
We became worried two weeks ago when the Cardinals pretty much dominated the Steelers for the most part, but failed continuously to score points when it should have.
And this past week against Baltimore, the Cardinals just couldn’t close the door on the Ravens. They needed a late interception to seal a win that should have been completed much earlier.
So, we’re not totally in Arizona’s corner, especially on a short week where it will have to travel to Cleveland.
The Browns have been a dumpster fire on defense this season, but with the Cardinals employing a vertical passing game, that should work in Cleveland’s favor. As long as Arizona doesn’t try to run it down Cleveland’s throat, which it hasn’t attempted this season for the most part, we like this matchup.
Cleveland will be able to move the ball against Arizona. This game should be closer than many would expect. — Go against the chalk with Cleveland
San Diego (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
We might be crazy, but try to follow us on this one.
Neither one of these teams are very good. And San Diego is making that dreadful trip from the West Coast to the East Coast, and the game is in the early afternoon window. Usually, we’d avoid this game like the plague in the Chargers direction, but something tells us to keep the faith with San Diego.
Baltimore is coming off another close loss, and this time, will have to come back on a short week. The Chargers won’t even attempt to run the football against the Ravens, which actually works in San Diego’s favor. The Ravens secondary is absolutely atrocious, so we’re siding with Phillip Rivers in that matchup.
We know San Diego’s defense isn’t very good, but we like the Chargers as an underdog. Their offense doesn’t work as a favorite. But as an underdog, we like the pass-happy approach, which should put plenty of pressure on the Ravens.
Last week’s loss to Oakland shouldn’t be counted too much against San Diego. The Chargers were coming off two games that were down to the wire before the Raiders game, so we figured they would be exhausted.
The Ravens may give up on the season, so don’t expect them to cover as a favorite. — Go against the chalk with San Diego
