Oddsmakers are expecting the Eastern Conference semifinals to feature a bit more drama than the West.
Odds for each series were released recently and updated with most of the series already playing one game. That one game may not be the best barometer of how to bet, though, as evidenced by the San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City series.
The series opened with the Spurs holding a decent advantage at -319 to the Thunder’s +214. After the opening game blowout, the betting public rushed to back the Spurs, shooting the odds to -800 in favor of the Spurs and +600 for the Thunder.
With the series tied at one game apiece, the best value in the playoffs currently is Oklahoma City. I still believe the Spurs will win the series, but the Thunder proved Monday that this will be a more competitive series than what we saw in game 1.
At +600, there’s no reason not to take a flier on the Thunder.
If you’re thinking of a major upset, Portland would be the ticket. The Trail Blazers opened at +800 and immediately shot to +1200 after a game 1 loss. The Warriors should be avoided like the plague at -3000.
The Warriors will win that series in at least five games, so stay out of Golden State’s way until at least the Western Conference finals.
In the East, the most competitive series is Miami vs. Toronto. The Raptors are -160 to win the series, while the Heat are +140. Several experts believe the Heat will win the series, giving solid value over to Miami.
However, I’m not jumping into that ship. Toronto exercised its demons in the first round and will look much better in round 2. Even at -160, Toronto offers a safe-enough wager to make some money.
Finally, in the final semifinal showdown, it’s all about Cleveland with the Cavs going off at -470 compared to Atlanta at +395. Before the playoffs began, I may have taken the Hawks at solid value of +395, but Cleveland is looking like the Cleveland we expected all year long, so I wouldn’t bet against them just yet.
The Cavs win that series in at least five games, setting up a potential difficult series with Toronto.
