We’re running out of time to boost our college football Lockness Monsters over the .500 mark. With the season coming to a close, we’re putting together our best efforts yet.
But just in case you’re not satisfied with our college football locks, take a look at our NFL bets, and pad your wallet with the money lost after following our college football picks.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 21-29-1 ATS
Georgia at Auburn (-1.5)
We’re surprised that oddsmakers haven’t caught up to Auburn coming back to relevancy.
This line opened with Georgia as two-point favorites. The betting public has shifted in the direction of the Tigers and we’re fully on board.
The Bulldogs beat a Kentucky team last week that just isn’t the same as it was in the early part of the season. The Wildcats haven’t shown anything on offense lately and the defense has been non-existent. So, we’re not going to give much credit to Georgia for last week’s win.
The Tigers, on the other hand, have quietly turned things around. Auburn is 3-2 straight up in its last five games, including an upset victory at Texas A&M last week. We’ve discussed at length how bad Auburn has been against the spread in the last two years, but lately, it’s not that bad.
Auburn is 2-2 against the spread in the last four games, and the two losses against the spread were by less than four points combined.
The Tigers win this game and continue to show why they will be a tough opponent in the latter part of the season. — Go chalk with Auburn
Clemson at Syracuse (+28)
Maybe we’re way off, but we’re not buying Clemson minus-four touchdowns after such an emotional win last week against Florida State.
We’re well aware that the Tigers are a better team. But this is still the same Clemson team that…well…Clemson’s games away. We’ve seen in the past Clemson’s inability to win specific games it’s supposed to, so we’re surprised oddsmakers put the Orange at such a disadvantage.
Sure, the Orange have been terrible lately. Syracuse is 0-6 in its last six games. But for the most part, the games have been competitive, other than against Florida State and Louisville. Even with those games not being competitive, the Orange still only lost by 24 points in each game.
That’s a lot, but not a cover this week. And the Orange haven’t been as bad at home. In the previous six games, Syracuse has played at home only twice, and lost by a combined 13 points.
Don’t get caught up in Clemson’s win last week. The Tigers win, but it’s closer than four touchdowns. — Go against the chalk with Syracuse
Alabama at Mississippi State (+8)
Remember when we bet against Alabama on the road earlier this season? We said we wouldn’t make that mistake again.
The Crimson Tide are a much better team against the spread on the road than at home. At home, the Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS, with their only win last week against LSU. On the road, it’s a different story. Alabama is 2-0 ATS away from home.
We’re not buying the trends this week. While everyone was freaking out last week about Alabama’s possibility of losing, we weren’t worried. We took Alabama to cover that spread against a one-dimensional LSU team. The best way to beat the Tide is to employ a multi-faceted offensive approach.
LSU can only run the ball, which is the worst strategy against Alabama.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have a mobile quarterback with Dak Prescott, which has given Alabama fits in past years. Factor that into a possible letdown and inexperience on the road (the Crimson Tide have played only two road games so far this season), and we’re looking for a cover with Mississippi State. — Go against the chalk with Mississippi State
Minnesota (+12.5) at Iowa
The last time we saw Iowa at night at home, it escaped with a last-second field goal in a win against Pittsburgh.
That could be the moment when many experts point to a change in momentum for the Hawks.
This game also will be under the lights at Iowa and we’re expecting a much closer game than a double-digit spread.
We’re not totally sold on the Golden Gophers. They haven’t been that good this season, but lately, we’re seeing more than we anticipated before the season began. Minnesota put up a nice fight two weeks ago against a good Michigan team, and then hung with Ohio State for the majority of the game last week.
The Golden Gophers also just removed the interim label off of coach Tracy Claeys, which could be a motivator for the Golden Gophers. It will be tough for the Hawkeyes to play loose from now on, so we believe the Hawks will come out tight in this game in an attempt to impress the College Football Playoff committee.
For that reason, we’re expecting a hard-fought game that could come down to another late field goal. — Go against the chalk with Minnesota
Michigan (-13) at Indiana
We’re pretty confident that Indiana’s season has officially derailed. Everyone thought that the Hoosiers would hand Iowa its first loss.
We weren’t sold on that notion, so we took the Hawks last week on the road. This week, we’re going with another road team, since we just don’t believe Indiana can stop anyone when the game is on the line.
The Hoosiers have been competitive for about three quarters against most teams during this losing streak, but have been unable to close anything out.
We don’t see that changing this week and the Hoosiers will have a tougher time moving the ball against Michigan than against likely any other team they have played this season.
Without the ability to move the ball, Indiana will be at a heavy disadvantage throughout this game. We’re going with the Wolverines in a wide margin. — Go chalk with Michigan
