I’m going with value this year with my NCAA men’s basketball tournament picks. That’s why I’m not giving much credence to favorites heading into the Big Dance next week.
With all the upsets that have already happened this season, you’d be wise to stick with the underdog when looking for college basketball futures picks, too.
Here’s four favorites I’m especially backing away from when filling out a bracket.
Kansas, +500
I’ve seen this song and dance before. The Jayhawks win a Big 12 regular season title against a loaded conference. Then, Kansas can’t generate any offense in the conference tournament or the NCAA tournament en route to an upset loss. It seems like that happens every year and I don’t see this season being much different. Kansas will enter next week’s tournament as the prohibitive favorite, alongside Michigan State, at +500. The Jayhawks are good, both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. However, they just don’t have that closer that’s needed come tournament time. I’m avoiding the Jayhawks like the plague in a week.
Kentucky, +1000
The team is loaded with talent. That’s why it was a preseason No. 1 selection. However, the Wildcats hit some bumps in the road along the way, and lost some head-scratchers. Now, it seems Kentucky is back on track and pretty much nobody can match the Wildcats in talent-level. However, I’m not so sure Jim Calipari can get the job done. He’s not a great tournament coach, especially considering the skill advantage he sees on a yearly basis in March Madness. And this team isn’t as skilled as years past. The Wildcats found their groove in a SEC that is void of top-tier teams. That will prove problematic in a week.
Virginia, +1400
I feel like this is a reoccurring theme, too. The Cavaliers enter the NCAA tournament as one of the best teams in the nation, only to lose a game in which it can’t score the basketball. Virginia’s defense isn’t the problem. It’s the offense that sometimes just doesn’t show up. That’s a major problem during the Big Dance and one that has nipped the Cavaliers in the past.
Duke, +2000
There’s something missing with these Blue Devils. Maybe it’s a hangover from last season’s championship. Or maybe the talent pool isn’t as vast. Duke has lost three of its last five games and it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better. The team doesn’t do much down the stretch in games, which is a key indicator to how well a team will fare in March Madness. I’m skipping the Blue Devils to not only not win the title, but also not to make it out of the first weekend.
