FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Michigan Wolverines in the Big 10.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Michigan at 7.5 wins. Last year, the Wolverines went 5-7 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under for bettors at +100, while the over is at -140.
The upside
This over/under proves that schedule matters. Georgia Tech, which was previewed recently, also is listed at 7.5 wins. I don’t believe there’s much argument about which team is significantly better entering the 2015 season.
But the Wolverines have a new coach in Jim Harbaugh, and bettors looking for the over are hoping for a new attitude. Michigan hasn’t been Michigan as of late, with only one season with more than eight wins since former head coach Lloyd Carr departed in 2007.
For the Wolverines to reach the eight-win plateau this year, it will do so against a less-than-quality schedule.
Home games feature match-ups with Oregon State, UNLV, BYU, Northwestern, Michigan State, Rutgers and Ohio State. Absent the Buckeyes and Spartans, those are teams that should hover at .500 or below.
The Wolverines should be favored in five of those seven contests, with at least three of those games, Oregon State, UNLV and Rutgers, being near-guarantees.
To get wins, the Wolverines will rely on a defense that returns several players from a unit that ranked No. 7 nationally last season in total defense. Harbaugh also won’t change much on the offensive and defensive end, so players should be able to get accustomed quickly to Harbaugh’s run-first approach.
The downside
The road schedule doesn’t match up as well as the home slate. Games at Utah, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana and Penn State will be toss-ups if not games where the Wolverines are underdogs. Michigan should be favored against Indiana, but the rest of the games don’t look as promising.
Once again, though, those teams aren’t world-beaters.
In addition to difficulties on the road, the Wolverines will attempt to get more offensive production. They will have to do it with graduate transfer quarterback Jake Rudock, who has starting experience with Iowa. The biggest issue with Ruduck is that Iowa fans were more than willing to see him go, which doesn’t conjure up great optimism.
The verdict
This is basically the same team that Michigan has put forth each year for the last few seasons. The Wolverines will be good defensively and will struggle on offense.
The biggest difference is Harbaugh, which is enough to sway votes for the over. The Wolverines should be favored in at least six games, and with Harbaugh at the helm, a new attitude will emerge for the Wolverines. Michigan may not be the most talented team in the country, but it will face Big-10 opponents and have one of the best coaches in America.
Take the juice and go with the over for the Wolverines.
