FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC.
Over/under
FiveDimes has North Carolina at eight regular season wins. Last year, the Tar Heels went 6-6 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over for bettors at -115, while the under is set at -125.
The upside
Offense won’t be a problem for North Carolina.
The Tar Heels return quarterback and school-record holder Marquise Williams, along with nine other starters. North Carolina has so much experience offensively, almost their entire rushing, receiving and passing yards return from a year ago.
But offense hasn’t been the problem for Larry Fedora. It’s defense that has Tar Heels fans worried about the upcoming year. To attempt to reshape the defense, Fedora hired former national champion winning head coach Gene Chizik.
Whether the former Iowa State and Auburn coach can reshape the defense remains to be seen. However, he should have plenty of help from the offense and the home schedule.
The Tar Heels have no Florida State, Clemson or Louisville on their schedule. Three of the first four games are home contests against North Carolina AT&T, Delaware and Illinois. Other home games are against Wake Forest, Virginia, Duke and Miami. All seven home games are winnable and the Tar Heels should actually be favored in likely all of those match-ups.
The downside
How good of a coach is Chizik? As a head man, he was the head coach during a national championship run that featured Cam Newton as quarterback. He’s also been in charge during years where his teams have gone well below .500.
And he’s been out of the game since 2012. It may take a miracle worker to improve North Carolina’s defense. The Tar Heels ranked 117th out of 125 teams in NCAA football in total defense last season. The offense will be stellar, much like last season. How can bettors trust a defense ranked that low, knowing that Fedora’s teams in the past have been far more committed to offense than to defense?
Despite a solid home schedule, the road contests will feature difficult assignments. The Tar Heels will square off against South Carolina in a neutral field game to open the 2015 season. From there, North Carolina must travel to Georgia Tech to begin October.
Heading into the Yellow Jackets game, the Tar Heels should at least be 3-1. Other road games won’t be impossible, but should be at least be toss-ups, with games against Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and North Carolina State.
The verdict
When looking at this number without any context, it seems that eight wins would be too high. However, there’s only two games on the schedule that should feature North Carolina as more than a touchdown underdogs – South Carolina and Georgia Tech.
Those are games where North Carolina will likely lose, but all seven home games should be victories. That leaves the other three road games, where the Tar Heels must go 2-1 to achieve the over.
Oddsmakers chose a solid number to put down as the over/under. The season should come down to the final two games against Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. This is a difficult choice, but sometimes you just have to gamble and taking the Tar Heels with the over is just that.
North Carolina may enter the final two games needing only a split. Go with the split.
