FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Oregon Ducks in the Pac 12.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Oregon at 9.5 wins. Last year, the Ducks went 11-1 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under for bettors at +125, while the over is at -165.
The upside
Are you feeling lucky? Oddsmakers are pretty much daring bettors to take the under at +125.
Oregon has shown that 9.5 wins just isn’t high enough during the past few years. The Ducks have gone over nine wins each year since 2009 when Chip Kelly took over operations at Oregon.
Is now the time that the Ducks revert back to single-digit wins? Oregon is losing Heisman trophy quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Pac 12 is getting stronger. However, the conference schedule doesn’t provide many high-risk games this season for the Ducks.
The Ducks will face only two questionable conference games on the road – at Arizona State and at Stanford. That will help Eastern Washington transfer quarterback Vernon Adams, who was one of the top FCS quarterbacks in recent years.
While there are new faces to go with the always new Oregon uniforms, there will be plenty of skill position players who will be mroe talented than many other players in the nation. Also, defensively, the Ducks return DeForest Buckner, who would have likely been a high draft pick in the NFL draft had he left school.
He will bolster a strong front seven that should be a solid unit in 2015.
The downside
Michigan State will be ready for the Sept. 12 rematch in East Lansing, Michigan. With some young players at Oregon, the Spartans may actually be favored, especially after what the Spartans have done in the past two years in the regular season and postseason.
Even if the Spartans win that game, it doesn’t mean the end for the over. Oregon has shown in years past to be able to come back from disappointment and run away with Pac-12 titles.
The Ducks will avoid playing two of the top teams in the South division – UCLA and Arizona. Other games that may offer some resistance are home games against USC and Utah. A possible sleeper game that could be competitive is at Washington, since a bye week awaits during the week after in preparation for going to Arizona State.
Positionaly, the offensive line and secondary may take a step back for the Ducks, but Oregon has shown an abilty during the last five years to reload at several different positions.
The verdict
Oregon may be favored in every game, except possibly at Michigan State early in the season. That doesn’t bode well for bettors looking to exploit the under.
It’s astonishing that oddsmakers would make the over/under below double digits, so this doesn’t need much explanation. The Ducks will win double-digit games again this year, making this an easy call to go with the over.
