FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the TCU Horned Frogs in the Big 12.
Over/under
FiveDimes has TCU at 10 regular season wins. Last year, the Horned Frogs were 11-1 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable return in the over at -115, while the under is set at -125.
The upside
There are some land mines in the schedule, but the Horned Frogs should have a chance to reach at least 11 wins again this year.
Trevone Boykin is back to lead the offense after setting eight school records last season. Main receiver Josh Doctson and top running back Aaron Green also are back.
Possibly even more importantly, the offensive line returns four starters.
The Horned Frogs will score points. That’s normally not a problem for most Big 12 teams, so TCU is poised to be the best offensive unit in the pass-happy Big 12.
TCU will host important home games, including games against Texas, West Virginia and Baylor. Big 12 officials and ESPN executives are crossing their fingers that the Nov. 27 match-up featuring the Horned Frogs against the Bears is an undefeated game for the Big 12 title.
The downside
TCU will face an assignment to rebuild its defense. Two linebackers are gone, including leading tackler Paul Dawson. Chris Hackett also left for the NFL early, meaning the Horned Frogs will have to replace their top interception threat in the secondary.
TCU won’t be the only Big 12 team with holes on its defense, but for the Horned Frogs to achieve the over, it will have to lose only one game, which could be a difficult task if the defense doesn’t show consistent improvement.
While TCU does host Baylor, likely its biggest threat to a title, TCU will face difficult road contests.
Minnesota isn’t the best team on this schedule, but TCU will open its season at Minnesota. The Horned Frogs will be heavily favored, but the Golden Gophers are coming off a year where they surprised most of the Big 10.
Other difficult road assignments include at Kansas State, at Oklahoma State and at Oklahoma.
The verdict
TCU should be one of the most talented offenses in the country. However, its defensive youth should worry bettors who are looking for the Horned Frogs to win 11 games.
The road schedule also doesn’t look great for the over, with road games at Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
Is TCU good enough to go undefeated? Yes. That offense should be special and in the Big 12, defenses are optional. However, without a proven defense, it’s difficult in the preseason to have much confidence in the over.
Take the under and watch if the Horned Frogs can navigate a difficult road schedule.
