FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Texas Longhorns in the Big 12.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Texas at 6.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Longhorns went 6-6 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over to bettors at +155, while the under is at -195.
The upside
It’s year two in the Charlie Strong era and if his recruiting is as good as it was at Louisville, then the talent should continue to rise for the Longhorns.
However, the rebuilding effort may take more time than Longhorns fans desire.
The offense should be better with quarterback Tyrone Swoopes returning. The run game also should be dynamic with Swoopes’ ability to move and top running back Johnathan Gray returning.
Defensively, the Longhorns also should be better. The defensive line will be better and with Strong as the head man in Austin, the defense should be the stronger of the two units again this year.
So if all facets of Texas should be better, then why are oddsmakers betting on the Longhorns to finish even or worse than last year’s record?
The downside
It’s all about the schedule.
Texas must go on the road to Notre Dame, TCU, West Virginia and Baylor. The Longhorns also must host California, Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and play a neutral field game against Oklahoma.
There’s not much margin for error. And although Texas should be better, it won’t be that much better.
The Longhorns will be significant underdogs when it travels to Notre Dame, TCU and Baylor. It also will likely be underdogs against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
Strong will likely make this program better, but this year could be a rough transition.
The verdict
There is a massive difference between the values of the over/under. The reason is because the Longhorns just have too tough of a schedule.
Bettors can bank on losses against the Irish, Horned Frogs and Bears. They also can likely pencil in losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia.
The Longhorns should be favored against Rice, Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech. But Texas will need three more wins after those to reach the over. Can bettors depend on the Longhorns defeating California, Kansas State and Oklahoma State?
That’s a tall order and not worth the massive return on the over. Take the under and breeze into this win.
