Entering this year, there are some teams still hot and cold in relation to the spread in college football.
What teams are still riding a high from last year, and what teams should you expect to still be overrated when it comes to oddsmakers setting the spread?
HOT
TCU, 11-2 ATS in 2014
TCU was really good last year and it still covered the spread in 11 of 13 games. That number represented the best mark in college football. The impressive part is the Horned Frogs weren’t sneaking up on anyone. The line was regularly set high and Horned Frogs dominated.
Throughout the season, TCU’s margin of victory was 27.5 points. No team in FBS averaged a better margin of victory per game last season than the Horned Frogs. Against the spread, the Horned Frogs also were dominant, with a +13.1 mark per game against the spread.
TCU once again won’t sneak up on anyone this year, but it’s hard to believe the Horned Frogs will be as good as they were last year against the spread.
Betters will get an early check on TCU this season with an opening game Thursday against Minnesota. The Horned Frogs are 16-point favorites at Minnesota.
NOT
Florida State, 3-11 ATS in 2014
Florida State was the ultimate against the spread team in 2013 when it went 11-3 against the spread en route to
winning the national championship.
Last year, the Seminoles were the classic case of the betting public having a different perception than what was actually on the field. Florida State did go undefeated in the regular season, but several of those games were close, even though the schedule should have offered little resistance.
Against the spread last year, Florida State was a -7.5 against the spread on a weekly basis.
The betting public isn’t fooled this year with the Seminoles. Oddsmakers set Florida State as a 37-point favorite in week 1 against Texas State. However, the opening line has been moved to 29 points.
HOT
Arkansas, 10-3 ATS in 2014
Arkansas is the hot pick for a dark horse conference title winner. That may decrease the possibility of the Razorbacks repeating its performance from last year against the spread.
The perception carved out in 2013, when Arkansas went 4-8 against the spread, was the one that the betting public and oddsmakers carried along with them in 2014. That translated to the Razorbacks being one of the best teams against the spread last year.
Arkansas finished +9.8 against the spread on a weekly basis and its margin of victory was in double digits at 12.7 points per game.
It should be interesting what spreads are utilized in Arkansas games, considering the Razorbacks aren’t a top team yet, but many experts are highlighting the improvements made over time.
The Razorbacks open the season against UTEP. The opening line was at -35 in favor of Arkansas, and has since moved to 33 points.
NOT
Auburn, 4-9 ATS in 2014
Since winning the national championship in 2010, Auburn hasn’t been a bad pick against the spread, going over .500 since that time.
However, 2014 was not a year to pick the Tigers. Auburn went 4-9 against the spread. While the Tigers had a margin of victory of 8.8 points, the Tigers were -4.5 against the spread on a per game basis.
Auburn scores plenty of points, and that wasn’t a problem last year. The Tigers faced a difficult schedule and the defense allowed far too many points to maintain a quality against the spread record.
The betting public will get early information on what to do with the Tigers this season. Auburn squares off against Louisville on Saturday. The opening line hasn’t moved away from the Tigers being 10.5-point favorites.
