I came crashing back to earth last week in college football.
I wasn’t even close in many of those games last week, and after feeling good about going perfect in the previous week, I fell on my face, almost repeating the feat in a different direction.
But it’s another week and we’re almost to the conclusion of the regular season. November is the best time of the year in college football, because there’s no indication of which teams will choke and which ones will rise to the occasion.
Here’s the week 11 college football best bets.
Last Week: 1-5 ATS
Overall: 25-34-1 ATS
Minnesota (+7) at Nebraska
This pick isn’t focused on just one factor. This is about two teams being very similar, but labeled in two different categories.
The Cornhuskers were a top-10 team last week. They didn’t belong, but I understand why pollsters had to put them there. They were only one game removed from being undefeated. However, Nebraska showed last week that it didn’t belong anywhere near the top-10.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has quietly rattled off four straight victories, and are just as in play for a Big 10 West title as Nebraska. In reality, this is really a de facto elimination game.
The Golden Gophers’ offense has caught fire in recent weeks, going for more than 30 points in four straight games after a severe letdown against Iowa in early October. The defense has been inconsistent, but so has Nebraska’s offense.
These two teams should be considered equals. Instead, I’m getting seven points, so I’m booking the Gophers. — Go Against the Chalk with Minnesota
Oregon State (+11.5) at UCLA
I can’t believe oddsmakers aren’t catching on to the Beavers ability to cover spreads. Oregon State has been one of the best teams in the nation at covering, going 7-2, despite being one of only two teams with seven covers to be in the negative in margin of victory.
UCLA is a dumpster fire. Injuries have derailed its season and I can’t imagine the motivation level is at an all-time high. Past experience tells me that teams with high expectations that find themselves in a slump, don’t do well in November.
UCLA has far more talent than Oregon State, but motivation is a tricky thing. The Beavers are trying to build a program, while UCLA is trying to get this season over. Oregon State’s offense is probably better than UCLA’s at that moment anyway, and the defense isn’t far off.
This game will attract very few viewers, but it should attract far more betters toward the Beavers. — Go Against the Chalk with Oregon State
Wake Forest (+34.5) at Louisville
I did this one other time with the aforementioned Oregon State, so I’m testing this strategy out again with a team that’s similar to the Beavers.
Wake Forest isn’t very good, but they’re not horrible. There was that loss to Army that’s inexcusable, but they’ve also won at Indiana and Duke, and were edged by Florida State on the road by 11 points.
The offense has shown some flashes of at least being competent, and that’s all I’m looking for this week against Louisville. The Cardinals are out for blood and there’s no reason to break down anything in this game.
Louisville is going to win handily, but I have a hard time believing that Wake Forest won’t at least keep this within four touchdowns. Wake is a better football team than what Boston College showed last week against the Cardinals.
You may have to hold on tight at the end, but Wake should lose by less than five touchdowns. — Go Against the Chalk with Wake Forest
Bonus Bets
Stanford (-3) at Oregon — Oregon isn’t very good and Stanford beats the Ducks when they are good. The Cardinal are starting to gain some steam and will control the clock, much like USC did last week against the Ducks. — Go Chalk with Stanford
California (+15) at Washington State — Something tells me this could be an upset. Both teams play a similar style with players on similar talent levels. The Cougars aren’t used to being this kind of a favorite. — Go Against the Chalk with California
Auburn (-10.5) at Georgia — It’s not time to fade the Tigers yet. Auburn is still really good, despite what it showed last week. The Tigers roll over a hapless Bulldogs team. — Go Chalk with Auburn
