I’m going to sound like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth this year, but for the first time in recent memory, I’m a bit torn on how I will proceed with my strategy.
This year is all about where you land in the draft order and how much you trust the later rounds. Normally, I am totally against investing in wide receivers in the first two rounds. However, this year may offer a change, thanks to the amount of running backs being labeled as first-round picks, according to Average Draft Position.
With round one in the rearview, here’s my round 2 draft strategy, with a look at the previous picks and peak to the future rounds. These ADPs are provided by Fantasypros, which aggregates draft positions on multiple fantasy football platforms.
13. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
14. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
15. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
16. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
17. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
18. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
19. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
20. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
21. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
22. Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
23. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
24. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Holy wide receiver!
With everyone back on the running back bandwagon, there is some tremendous value with wide receivers. Beckham Jr., Jones and Green were all first-round fantasy football draft picks in 2017. And Thomas was a target monster in 2017, so it’s hard to ignore wide receivers, especially if your league follows ADP fairly closely, you can still get a solid RB2 in the later rounds, with LeSean McCoy, Joe Mixon and Kenyan Drake still waiting.
Normally, I like the double running approach in the first two rounds, but this second-round crop is a weak unit. Last year, I could get Todd Gurley in the second round. This year, at best, I’m getting Jordan Howard, who is good, but has several questions, especially with how much use he’ll get on third down.
So, even though I like my lineup to have my running back position cemented in the first two rounds, I will be amendable on that take, especially with where I’m picking.
Any can’t miss?
Beckham, Jones and Thomas are the three-best, most consistent options. Beckham can be a No. 1 fantasy football option, while Jones and Thomas are target hogs, who are guaranteed top-10 wide receiver options.
I’m not sure if there’s any can’t-miss options. Beckham Jr. is the best among the second-round talents, with the highest ceiling, but I’m not sweating my roster if he’s not on it at the end of this draft. If I draw a later-first round number, I’m hoping I get a solid running back in the first round, because that will open up opportunities for wide receiver talent. This year’s draft, unlike last year, is all about where your draft order is dictated, so there’s some hope with a later first round draft pick with elite wide receiver talent.
Welcome to bust-ville
When I look at this group of players, I see busts. Allen, McCaffrey, Green, Howard and McKinnon all have bust potential. That doesn’t bode well if you’re looking for an RB1 in this group.
There’s just so many question marks surrounding those players, that it’s not worth picking any of them, other than maybe Howard as an RB2. He’s not a three-down back, but he’s a top-tier first, second down running back.
Later in the round pick
There’s such a difference in draft order this year, that I can’t underestimate the value of getting a top-four pick in the draft.
You get an elite running back in the first round, regardless if it’s David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell or Gurley. And then you have the opportunity at grabbing Howard, who can be a nice compliment at RB2, or a player like Evans, who is just two years removed from being the top fantasy football wide receiver.
And then, if we look ahead, McCoy is still out there, with a third-round valuation, who could either be the best flex in the history of fantasy football, or a top-tier RB2.
McCoy is the true wild card of the 2018 fantasy football draft. As a first-round option, I’m not a huge fan, based on previous overuse on the football field and the potential for a suspension. However, if he’s a flex or an RB2, that reduces some of the risk, and could allow your roster to feature Johnson, Howard and McCoy on the same team.
That’s easily a playoff-caliber roster. The biggest question mark is if you can wait until the third round to pick up McCoy. I would rate him higher than many of these second-round running backs, but I may inherit some risk with the pick by waiting on him until the third round, hoping the rest of the league is sleeping on McCoy.
The second round is all about avoiding the bust in this year’s draft, and paving your roster’s way to a successful third round strategy.
