Welcome to the top-tier of the fantasy football world Derek Carr.
I’ve talked about this before, but if you play Carr as a matchup quarterback, you’re not using him correctly. He torched Tampa Bay, but that’s not a new trend for the young quarterback.
He’s been doing this all season. He has the third-most fantasy points overall. He’s thrown for 17 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. And now he faces Denver in a spotlight game in week 9.
He has earned the right to still start for your fantasy team, even with a bad matchup. He may not go off like he did in week 8, but he’s good enough to be a top-12 fantasy quarterback in week 9.
Here’s the rest of the week 9 start ’em, sit ’em guide for quarterbacks in fantasy football.
Start
Jameis Winston vs. Atlanta Falcons
Winston hasn’t been as good as many hoped this season, but with so many byes this week, you have to take a bit of a deep breath in your expectations for week 9.
I was disappointed in his final output in week 8 against an Oakland team that is terrible against the pass. He failed to reach 200 yards passing. That gives him four consecutive games where he hasn’t totaled a 300-yard passing game, even though the week 8 tilt went to overtime and featured plenty of scoring.
But as disappointed as I’ve been with his yardage, I’m encouraged by his touchdowns. He’s gone for five touchdowns compared to just one interception in his last two games. He’s going to throw the ball down the field and is the top weapon inside the red zone for the Buccaneers.
That will be on even more of a display with Jacquizz Rodgers, the team’s third-string running back filling in for the other injured running backs, likely out with an injury in week 9.
Winston’s stock should rise this game because of the lack of running back depth and Atlanta’s inability to stop the pass. The Falcons are a bottom-10 defense against the pass and have allowed 19 touchdown passes through the air, tied for the most in the NFL.
I’ve seen road teams on Thursday nights completely disappear on defense. I’m expecting a similar result in week 9.
Philip Rivers vs. Tennessee Titans
Rivers had a bad matchup in week 8 against Denver, but was at least serviceable.
He went for two touchdowns and 267 yards passing against the top passing defense in the NFL. That’s encouraging for the week 9 matchup against Tennessee.
The Titans allowed all the yardage during garbage time against Jacksonville in week 8, so many will just shrug that off. But there should be some worry with how the Titans allowed Blake Bortles to knife through the secondary.
I was concerned before the week 8 game against the Jaguars because of injuries to two out of the four starters in the secondary for the Titans. With question marks still surrounding their availability, Rivers should be an easy choice to start in week 9.
San Diego isn’t a very good team, but Rivers is doing everything in his power to keep them afloat. He’ll work his same magic in week 9 and should produce well in fantasy.
Ryan Tannehill vs. New York Jets
I wake up in a cold sweat thinking about Tannehill in my starting fantasy football lineup. The guy is one of the most inefficient quarterbacks I’ve ever seen and he doesn’t illicit much excitement for fantasy football.
But…he’s playing against the Jets and he’s been fairly competent recently for the new-look Dolphins.
He’s gone for more than 200 yards in consecutive games, not thrown an interception and moved the chains. Jay Ajay has been the workhorse, but head coach Adam Gase talked during the bye week about limiting Ajay’s role, making me anticipate more work for Tannehill.
And if there is more work available, the Jets are the right team to do it against. The Jets are horrendous against the pass. New York gives up 289 yards per game and allows quarterbacks to complete 66 percent of their passes.
Cleveland’s revolving door quarterback Josh McCown even went for 341 yards in week 8 against the Jets.
New York can shut down the opposition’s running game, making it likely that Tannehill will throw a lot more in week 9. With all the bye weeks, he may be a sneaky option for solid value.
Sit
Blake Bortles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I know what you’re thinking. You feel vindicated by starting Bortles and watching him go for almost 30 fantasy points in week 8.
But the majority of those points were earned in garbage time. That’s a Bortles specialty, earning fantasy points during garbage time, but this year, it’s not sustainable.
The Jaguars generally are keeping games close enough that Bortles can’t face prevent defenses in the second half, like he did in week 8. He’s been terrible for the majority of the season and that won’t get any better against the Chiefs.
Kansas City is going on its usual mid-season run, and it is stifling quarterbacks in the process. The Chiefs have 11 interceptions on the season, the most in the NFL and have allowed only 13 touchdown passes. Opposing quarterbacks are generating a QBR of 83.5, which likely will only get better against Bortles.
Bortles’ garbage time production isn’t sustainable. Stay away from him in week 9.
Matthew Stafford vs. Minnesota Vikings
Welcome to the place where fantasy quarterbacks come to disappoint.
The Vikings are pretty much the Broncos in that you should think long and hard before starting an opposing quarterback.
Carr has solidified himself as an every-week starter, giving him in the nod against the Broncos. Stafford has continuously shown that he can’t be trusted against good defenses, especially against a team like Minnesota.
The only hope you have is if Minnesota gets up big early, allowing Stafford to orchestrate some production during garbage time. However, as I’ve mentioned several times in the past, you can’t make your living on such a strategy.
Stafford is still a matchup-driven quarterback. In plus-matches he can be a top-three option. In bad matchups, like he had in week 8, he can be a disappointing option. He turned in just 13.60 points in week 8 against Houston, the lowest output since a week 4 road matchup with Chicago.
The Vikings won’t allow any room to maneuver and his constant check-downs won’t have any effect on Minnesota’s secondary. Find someone else who has a better matchup in week 9.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Seattle Seahawks
I’ve been pretty harsh on Taylor this season and he showed once again in week 8 that his upside has one of the lowest ceilings of any quarterback in the NFL.
He once again threw for less than 200 yards, his third outing in the last four weeks. He went for only one touchdown, giving him a point total that ranked 15th among quarterbacks in week 8.
Taylor does a good job of limiting turnovers, but he just can’t make the throws necessary to be a top-12 scorer in fantasy football. And now he has a road Monday Night Football matchup awaiting him against Seattle.
The Seahawks have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season, tied for the lowest amount in the NFL. Touchdowns are pretty much the only way Taylor can score points, so it’s a bad sign when the team he faces just doesn’t give up touchdowns to quarterbacks.
Taylor should be skipped again this week.
