The fantasy football industry gives up on players way too fast.
Look at the Los Angeles Rams for instance. Jared Goff was dismissed during his rookie year as a bust. And Todd Gurley was positioned as a late second-round choice in fantasy football based on a down year.
It’s a miracle what a fresh coaching staff and a little help can do. Goff is an actual fantasy play in his second year and Gurley is a constant top-five workhorse among running backs.
With bye weeks upon us, don’t completely dismiss players based on a small sample size. Here’s the week 5 start ’em, sit ’em running backs guide for fantasy football.
Start
Isaiah Crowell vs. New York Jets
I know we’ve given up on Crowell. And it’s hard to blame the majority of you.
But Cleveland hasn’t exactly been the best at staying in games in the early portion of the 2017 season. Cleveland has gotten down early in the last three weeks, necessitating a different strategy.
I incorrectly predicted a better game flow for Crowell last game. The Browns went complete Browns against the Bengals and were annihilated.
This week offers a better opportunity at game flow. The Jets own the fourth-worst rush defense in the NFL, and this game should be close. That works well for Crowell. He’s had to battle for touches with Duke Johnson, but that’s mainly because Johnson is a better receiving back.
With a closer game expected, Crowell should see more carries and produce better results.
Joe Mixon vs. Buffalo Bills
It’s tempting to avoid the Bills defense. Buffalo is allowing less than 4 yards per carry and Mixon turned in less than 2 yards per carry in week 4 against Cleveland.
But I’m encouraged by Mixon’s volume, as he totaled 17 carries in week 4, piggybacking off his 18 carry performance in week 3.
And I’m also getting the Bills in their third road game in four weeks. At some point, Buffalo will return back to normal, and I’m believing week 5 could be the week where a couple of cracks appear in their armor.
Jacquizz Rodgers vs. New England Patriots
I know we’re giving up on Rodgers, but let’s give him some time to fade in the background before we completely toss him to the side.
Rodgers was above-average in two of three weeks, so he should still be involved in this offense, even with Doug Martin returning from suspension.
Rodgers has always been good at catching the ball out of the backfield, but he’s shown in recent weeks to be pretty good between the tackles, too.
Martin will be eased into the lineup, giving Rodgers several opportunities at turning in a decent performance. New England has been terrible against the run this season, so keep Rodgers on your low-end RB2/Flex radar.
Sit
Duke Johnson vs. New York Jets
Johnson has made life difficult on those fantasy owners who believed in Crowell’s ability.
Crowell was supposed to have a breakout season, but he’s been mired in less-than-mediocrity, much like the Browns.
Johnson has been a pleasant fantasy surprise, but he’s still a one-dimensional player, who requires catching the ball out of the backfield to score fantasy points. He hasn’t garnered more than four carries in a game this season, so if the Browns aren’t playing catch-up, his value drops significantly.
Cleveland should stay close, so go with Crowell over Johnson.
Frank Gore vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is allowing more than 100 yards per game on the ground, so it would be easy to believe Gore would be in for a big day.
Not so fast.
The 49ers also allow only 3.3 yards per carry, the seventh-best number in the NFL. The 49ers are putting up a good front against the run. It’s just that teams are pounding the run early and often against them.
The Colts aren’t as committed to the run as Carolina, Seattle and Los Angeles were (San Francisco’s first three opponents). The 49ers were much better against the run in week 4 against an Arizona team not focused on pounding the ball.
Expect similar results in week 5.
LeGarrette Blount vs. Arizona Cardinals
For how much I’m fading Arizona’s early 2-2 record, I’m actually impressed with the run defense.
The front has been pretty good so far this season and that should continue in week 5 against a bad running team in Philadelphia.
Blount got back on track in week 4 against a porous Los Angeles Chargers rush defense with 136 yards rushing. He has 28 carries in the last two games, so it appears he’s gaining favor with the coaching staff.
However, this matchup just doesn’t work. I anticipate Carson Wentz throwing more, giving way to more touches by Wendell Smallwood out of the backfield. That will limit Blount’s production level.
