One week can make a major difference in sports betting.
I was on a hot streak for about a month before falling victim to tough spreads and bad beats in week 11. So now, I’m looking at a .500 record overall and in the SuperContest. Now, I need to get hot, so I’ll utilize these three underdogs in the week 12 NFL picks for the SuperContest.
Overall: 31-31-4 ATS
SuperContest: 25-25-5 ATS (23 points)
Underdogs: 16-14-3 ATS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3)
This may come to haunt me in a major way.
The Bills aren’t good. But the Jaguars have likely given up on this season. And now, Jacksonville, a warm weather team, has to travel to Buffalo, where it will be cold, only one week removed from choking away a big lead at home against Pittsburgh.
Buffalo is getting healthier on both sides of the ball and Josh Allen should be back at the quarterback position for Buffalo, which should add some stability to the offensive attack for the Bills.
When looking at these two teams, the defenses aren’t that far apart. And in fact, the Bills have been a better unit in recent weeks, with allowing 4.5 yards per play in the last three weeks, compared to Jacksonville allowing 6.2.
The Jaguars offense won’t be able to move the ball on a consistent basis, so I’m backing the home team in this instances. — Go Against The Chalk with Buffalo
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay just isn’t a good football team. And with head coach Dirk Koetter steadfast on the hot seat, I’m not buying Tampa Bay in this instance.
San Francisco actually isn’t that bad on the defensive side of the ball. San Francisco is allowing 4.8 yards per play in the last three weeks, a significantly better margin than Tampa Bay at 6.3.
The offense is better for Tampa Bay, but San Francisco has shown strides in throwing the ball in recent weeks, which should carve away at a weakness for Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers have struggled for much of this season to find consistency on both sides of the ball, and with injuries piling up on both sides of the ball for Tampa Bay, San Francisco should have a clear-cut advantage in week 12. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Cleveland Browns (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
It pains me to take this many bad teams, but there’s some solid value in these teams.
And with the Browns, I’m not convinced that they’re worse than the Bengals. Cleveland owns a decent defense, to go along with an offense that appears to be catching its groove.
Meanwhile, the Bengals own a defense that is allowing 6.3 yards per play this season, one of the worst marks in the NFL. The offense isn’t capable of being a consistency entity, which should allow the Browns to generated several advantages in this contest.
The Bengals are dealing with several injuries, while the Browns are relatively healthy. I’ll take the Browns in this one to keep the Bengals sliding. — Go Against The Chalk with Cleveland
