Big spreads weren’t much of a problem in week 12 for NFL teams. Eight games featured spreads at more than a touchdown. Five teams covered the big spreads, with one team losing straight up in that position (Kansas City).
This week offers up smaller spreads, with four games featuring spreads of more than a touchdown. My underdogs have been bad lately, so I’ll look to stop the bleeding with my three favorite underdogs to cover the spread in the week 13 NFL picks.
Underdogs: 13-22-1 ATS
Overall: 27-43-2 ATS
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (+1.5)
The betting public is going with Tampa Bay in this one, moving the line from an even spread to giving the Buccaneers a slight edge in early betting.
The swing has more to do with perception than reality. Tampa Bay is on the road for a third consecutive game, and its fourth in five weeks. If you’re going to go on the road that often, you need a solid defense. And the Buccaneers just don’t have it.
Tampa Bay’s NFL-worst pass defense is getting worse, giving up an average of 8.3 yards per pass attempt in the last three games. What makes it even worse for Tampa Bay is the offense just hasn’t done much to offset its defensive issues. The offense is averaging just 4.9 yards per play in the last three games, less than the season average of 5.4 yards.
Green Bay’s defense is actually playing a little better and Brett Hundley still has some decent weapons. Even if Jameis Winston returns, the Packers should have the edge at home. — Go Against The Chalk with Green Bay
Kansas City at New York Jets (+3.5)
It’s time to reevaluate the Chiefs. Kansas City’s start to the season was obviously not a correct barometer for how this season would go.
And now, with an offense that can’t move the ball and a defense not equipped to be dominant, they must travel to New York to face a team that isn’t as bad as their record.
Unlike past years, the Jets aren’t quitting, with a solid coach and a defense that can compete with any team in the NFL. The Jets are giving up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt in the last three games and they rank in the top-half of the NFL in total defense.
Both offenses are comparable. With the Jets, I know they’re going to keep the game close and the Chiefs aren’t in a position to blow out anyone. Take the points in this one. — Go Against The Chalk with New York
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+6)
I’m sticking with my original prediction from the first meeting. I tabbed the Bengals to cover against the Steelers the first time, and that didn’t go well.
This time, though, I get the Bengals at home and almost a touchdown on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh’s offense is better. But Cincinnati’s defense has been elite lately.
For the season, the Bengals are giving up just 4.8 yards per play, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. Most importantly, Cincinnati is doing its best defensive work against the pass, giving up just 5.9 yards per pass this season, the fourth-best average this season.
Unlike the first game, though, Cincinnati’s offense is improving, averaging more yards per play and doing a better job in the passing game.
Both of these teams know each other well and the Bengals are fighting for a playoff spot. This is great value for a team that could sneak in for an upset. — Go Against The Chalk with Cincinnati
