Week 14 was one to forget.
I’ve been pretty consistent for the most part, generating at least .500 or above for the majority of weeks. Week 14 was a much different story.
I didn’t get much luck, but the picks overall weren’t bad. So I’ll have to keep hustling to stay above .500 for the season in NFL picks. Here’s my week 15 NFL picks featuring three underdogs to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 40-39-4 ATS
SuperContest: 32-33-5 ATS (34.5 points)
Underdogs: 19-19-3 ATS
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)
I’ve been hampered in recent weeks by picking against Seattle.
So instead of learning, I’m doubling down each week. But this has less to do with the Seahawks and more to do with the 49ers. San Francisco is better than its record indicates. San Francisco allows 5.4 yards per play, ranking 10th in the NFL in that category, and the offense ranks 14th in yards per play.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank 17th on offense and 26th on defense. While everyone salivates about the Seahawks after the week 14 performance, I’ll zero in on a team that ranks in the bottom-half of two major statistical categories. Eventually, that will come to haunt the Seahawks.
Seattle is having to travel on a short week after an emotional victory against Minnesota. This is a nice opportunity for San Francisco to hold an advantage and for the Seahawks to show some weaknesses. Handicappers believe turnovers will correct themselves and San Francisco is minus-21 in turnover differential. All the numbers point to a San Francisco cover. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Washington Redskins (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington hit rock-bottom in week 14 in a loss to the New York Giants.
Don’t expect that to happen again.
Washington has been bit by the injury bug more than any team in the NFL this year. And miraculously, the Redskins are still in the hunt for a playoff bid. The Jaguars are not.
That will matter in this week 15 matchup. Washington can still run the ball when the game flow doesn’t completely get out of hand. And Jacksonville’s offense is so bad, I can’t imagine this game will get that far away. So if the Redskins can run the ball, which Tennessee did consistently last week against Jacksonville, this game should stay close, especially since the Redskins defense has been good for the majority of this season.
Jacksonville is averaging a putrid 4.3 yards per play in the last three games, and when the Jaguars are at home, they’re actually averaging fewer yards per play than on the road. That once vaunted defense in Jacksonville isn’t so scary anymore. Washington is dealing with plenty of injuries, but this game should be closer than a touchdown spread. — Go Against The Chalk with Washington
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+5.5)
I know Carolina has fallen off the face of the planet. But this is still a halfway decent team.
And to fetch 5.5 points at home — against anybody in the NFL — is a nice number to exploit. The Panthers have struggled, but everything has been close. In the last four losses, no games have been decided by more than a touchdown, with two of the games decided by three points or less.
The Panthers have a legitimate home-field advantage and it will be on full display in this Monday night game. Carolina actually is tied with New Orleans in total offense, averaging 6.1 yards per play. In the last three games, the Panthers have been much better in that category, going for 6.9 yards per play, compared to New Orleans at 4.7. Defensively, it’s a different story, with New Orleans hold an edge.
However, I’ll side with the offense in this one, and I’m not going to ignore New Orleans playing in its third straight road game, with a home game against Pittsburgh on tap next week. — Go Against The Chalk with Carolina
