This is why I wasn’t guaranteeing a victory like many did last week.
The NFL is unpredictable, especially in the first part of the season. Generally when spreads are that large, it happens once the season progresses a bit. Instead, oddsmakers and the betting public were too quick to count out professionals, and created a Survivor Pool misery for the majority of people participating this season.
However, if you’re still one of the few engaged in the Survivor Pool, here’s the best shots at advancing into week 5.
Teams Used: Green Bay, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota (loss)
Best Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars
There are a few choices this week, especially if you haven’t used Green Bay yet. The Packers get the Bills (world beaters last week) on back-to-back road games, so that should be heavily in Green Bay’s favor.
However, I actually like the Jaguars better than the Packers this week. It’s not often the New York Jets will square off against a team with a better defense.
The Jaguars are who the Jets desire to be, but they’re not quite there yet on the defensive side of the ball. It also doesn’t hurt that Jacksonville holds an edge on the offensive side of the ball.
On paper, the Jaguars have more talent, and everything else surrounding this contest points to the Jaguars. Jacksonville needs to bounce back after an abysmal performance in week 3, and the Jets are having to play in back-to-back road games.
Trust the Jaguars to help you survive into week 5.
Sleeper Pick
Dallas Cowboys
This matchup doesn’t work for the Lions.
Detroit relies strictly on its passing game to move the ball. The Cowboys are one of the best defenses in the NFL at limiting the opposition’s passing game. The Cowboys can rush the passer and they’re allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt.
And on defense, the Lions can’t stop the run, giving up 5.4 yards per rush attempt. While it’s been well-documented that Dallas can’t throw the ball, it can run the ball, to the tune of an NFL-leading 6 yards per carry.
The Lions are better than they showed in week 1, but this matchup doesn’t work well for the Lions.
Be Careful
New England Patriots
I think New England is going to win. But there’s nothing that has happened in the first three weeks to create any certainty for that prognostication.
The Patriots aren’t doing much right. Defensively, they’re allowing more yards per play than Miami, and the offensive unit has been non-existent.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are playing pretty well. The offense is moving the ball at a consistent clip, while the defense has been able to rush the passer at a decent rate.
This isn’t near the slam-dunk that oddsmakers and the public wants to believe. I’m not betting against the Patriots to win, but I’m not sure enough to pick them in a Survivor Pool.
