Week 4 didn’t register near the drama everyone experienced in week 3. The upsets weren’t there and the Jacksonville Jaguars, my pick for week 4, advanced with very little resistance.
If you’re still alive in the Survivor Pool, there’s still plenty of teams capable of being solid picks each week. Teams are starting to show their true colors, so here’s my week 5 NFL Survivor Pool picks.
Teams Used: Green Bay, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota (loss), Jacksonville
Best Bet
Carolina Panthers
Many will probably take the New England Patriots. I get it. It’s tough to see many ways that Indianapolis, after a tough week 4 loss at home, would come back and compete at a high level on a short week against New England.
However, I’m just not sold on teams on a short week to be a consistent representation of who they actually are during the rest of the season.
So instead, I’m backing the Panthers off a bye week.
Carolina is just a lot better than the New York Giants. The Panthers are averaging 5.8 yards per play, compared to New York’s 5.1. The Panthers run the ball better, they pass the ball better and they play defense better than the Giants.
And Carolina’s a sneaky good home team.
New York has too many issues moving the ball consistently and that will haunt them against a Carolina team that can move the chains with a solid rushing attack. This is a tough spot for the Giants after a tough loss at home against New Orleans, with the Panthers coming off a bye week.
Sleeper Pick
New York Jets
There’s very few times that the New York Jets will be a viable Survivor Pool pick.
If ever there was a time to believe in the Jets, this would be the week.
This Denver defense isn’t the same unit we’ve been accustomed to seeing in past years. The Broncos are giving up 5.7 yards per play, and even more concerning, 7.3 yards per pass attempt.
The Jets, meanwhile, have been better on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 5.2 yards per play.
Sam Darnold has been inconsistent since a stellar opening. That will happen in a rookie year. This week offers a chance to bounce back against a Denver team having to travel through two time zones on a short week.
The Jets are favored for a reason and this may be a time to put one over on your Survivor Pool competitors.
Be Careful
Tennessee Titans
If you’re thinking of pulling the anti-Bills strategy, think again.
Buffalo is terrible. However, there’s a real home-field advantage for Buffalo and Tennessee is coming off an emotional overtime victory against Philadelphia.
As a favorite, the Titans aren’t as reliable as others, owning a .500 record as a favorite against the spread in the last two seasons. And while the Bills own the worst offense in the NFL, the defense hasn’t been terrible.
Buffalo allows fewer yards per play than Tennessee and isn’t completely overshadowed by this Tennessee offense. The week 4 victory against Philadelphia wasn’t exactly what the final score indicated. Tennessee struggled for the majority of that game on offense, until the Eagles got tired.
That can’t be counted on this week, so I would be scared to back the Titans in week 5.
