For how much I loved the favorites in week 6, I’m backing away from them in week 7.
Favorites have been my downfall anyway in the NFL season so far. Last week was a perfect example of how bad my luck has been with favorites, with Chicago and New England losing the cover in the final minutes.
I need a lot of winners over the next few weeks to get back in the Westgate SuperContest, so here’s three favorites I’m keeping an eye on for the week 7 NFL picks in the SuperContest.
As always follow my journey on this blog and on Twitter @AgainstTheChalk to keep up with my SuperContest journey.
Overall: 15-18-3 ATS
SuperContest: 12-15-3 ATS (13.5 points)
Favorites: 6-11-1 ATS
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
This is a lot of points to give up to a team that I consider to be pretty good.
However, the Chiefs are really good and I’m not sure the Bengals defense is up for the challenge.
Kansas City owns one of the best offenses in the NFL, and whether it’s on the road or at home, the Chiefs are going to move the chains on a consistent basis. Kansas City is averaging 6.8 yards per play this season, with plenty of damage being done on the ground and through the air.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are struggling in recent weeks on the defensive side of the ball. The Bengals allow just 5.9 yards per play for the season. However, during the last three games, Cincinnati is giving up 6.6 yards per play, more than Kansas City in that timeframe at 6.4.
Most notably, the Bengals are losing ground in the passing game, allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt in the last three games.
With the Bengals defense showing weakness and the Kansas City offense still humming, I have this game as more than a touchdown in favor of the Chiefs. — Go Chalk with Kansas City
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Are the Eagles back?
I think they’re on their way, and this week will be a major showcase if Philadelphia can reclaim NFC glory.
It will take some time for Carson Wentz to return to his former self. With three weeks now under his belt, he’s consistently shown improvement. The Eagles are now averaging 5.9 yards per play since Wentz has returned, up from the season average of 5.3. Philadelphia is making the most gains in the passing department, upping their yards per pass attempt from 6.4 to 7.2 in the last three games.
Carolina is similar to Philadelphia, but just doesn’t have the same ability on the road. The Panthers are a much better home team, making this 4.5 points not too much out of the realm of possibility. — Go Chalk with Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I just don’t see San Francisco keeping up with the Rams.
Los Angeles is really good on the offensive side of the ball. The Rams have averaged 7.7 yards per play in the last three games, which is even better than their season average of 7.2 It’s been the running game that has shown the most improvement, churning out 5.9 yards per rush attempt in the last three games.
The Rams are showing some deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball, but as the health returns for Los Angeles, so should the defensive pressure.
San Francisco is coming off a short week, where it lost in a heart-breaker on the road. This is not a good game to bounce back from, so I’m anticipating a blowout in San Francisco. — Go Chalk with Los Angeles Rams
