Favorites have been sucker bets this year in the NFL. Week 6 was the tipping point, where favorites were 3-11 against the spread. It hasn’t been that bad during the season, but it’s been close. Overall, favorites are 35-53 ATS.
In the past few years, favorites have been hotter than normal. Now, it seems, we’re hearkening back to the old days of NFL prognosticating. Despite the downside of favorites, there are some matchups to like in week 7. Here’s the week 7 NFL picks featuring the best three favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 5-13 ATS
Overall: 15-20-1 ATS
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)
I obviously like the Dolphins more than most. I couldn’t believe Miami was a double-digit underdog in week 6. And I’m surprised they’re not more of a favorite in week 7.
This offense is getting better. Even though Miami started off the season slow on that side of the ball, week 6 offered some proof that things aren’t going to be that bad. Miami utilized a solid rushing attack to keep away the ball from Atlanta and consistently moved the ball. The Dolphins ran up a nine-minute edge in time of possession in week 6 and I expect that to continue to be the case, especially in week 7.
The Jets have played over their head this season, but that’s about to end. New York allows 140 yards per game on the ground, which should allow Jay Ajayi to run wild in week 7. This offense was going to take some time to get going with Jay Cutler coming back. I trust Adam Gase as an offensive coach. The offense will come along and the defense is already one of the better units in the NFL.
Miami is continuing to get better and that will show in week 7. Bank on the Dolphins. — Go Chalk with Miami
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at San Francisco 49ers
I’ve been riding San Francisco in recent weeks, so I’m going to hop off that roller-coaster for this week. San Francisco is going to start winning some games.
This isn’t the time. The 49ers aren’t efficient on offense. Even with quarterback C.J. Beathard taking over the offense, I still don’t trust its consistency. The 49ers are completing less than 60 percent of their passes and that didn’t get any better with Beathard, who completed just 52 percent of passes in week 6. In college, Beathard wasn’t accurate, completing less than 60 percent of his passes, including a 56 percent completion rate in his senior season.
San Francisco also isn’t running the ball often enough to maintain drives. The 49ers are averaging only 22 carries per game, ranking in the bottom 10 of the NFL. The inefficient offense is only out-shadowed by a bottom-five defense.
Dallas is coming off a bye and should be able to overpower a San Francisco defense that has allowed teams to rack up an eight-minute advantage in time of possession. You’re giving up a lot of points, but it’s worth it in this one. — Go Chalk with Dallas
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders
While everyone is hopping off the Chiefs bandwagon, I’ll gladly step back in.
Even with a healthy Derek Carr, the Raiders have been terrible against Kansas City. Carr has one win in six tries against Kansas City in his career, and he hasn’t looked that great in those contests. His QBR is 68.1 in those six games with a 6-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s only completing 55 percent of his passes in those games, too.
That’s a bad sign for an Oakland team still trying to patch up its struggling offensive line and defense. Andy Reid knows how to gameplan for the Raiders. The offense didn’t look like the juggernaut we witnessed earlier this season for the Chiefs, but it should be back to at least being above-average in week 7.
Kansas City has better talent at this point and should be able to control this game from the beginning. Kansas City should be able to bounce back and win this by more than a field goal. — Go Chalk with Kansas City
