It’s been a discouraging start to the NFL season, highlighted by some bad beats once again in week 6.
New England and Chicago had multiple opportunities to cover in week 6, only to see the opposition come out on top in terms of covering. It’s been that way for the majority of the season, so it’s about time that begins to change…and fast.
I need a lot of winners over the next few weeks to get back in the Westgate SuperContest, so here’s three underdogs I’m keeping an eye on for the week 7 NFL picks in the SuperContest.
As always follow my journey on this blog and on Twitter @AgainstTheChalk to keep up with my SuperContest journey.
Overall: 15-18-3 ATS
SuperContest: 12-15-3 ATS (13.5 points)
Underdogs: 9-7-2 ATS
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+2)
Maybe I’m an apologist for the Cardinals. Or maybe I’m seeing something for future prognosticating.
The Cardinals are slowly getting better…on both sides of the ball.
How Josh Rosen hasn’t been the starter for the entire season is beyond me. He’s by far the best quarterback on that roster, and despite not being great in week 6 against Minnesota, the Cardinals did move the ball on a semi-consistent basis.
It was that way the week before at San Francisco, too.
The running game still needs to get going, but this is a great opportunity for a coming-out party. The once-vaunted Broncos defense is giving up 5.6 yards per carry this season, one of the worst marks in the NFL. Even worse, the Broncos are giving up 7.1 yards per carry in the last three games.
With the ability to run the football, that should open up some of the passing game for Rosen.
It’s not just the offense that has me excited for this underdog pick. The defense is improving, especially against the pass. The Cardinals give up 6.9 yards per pass attempt on the season. However, in the last three games, the Cardinals have dropped that number to 5.9.
This is a young team, so it was always going to take a few weeks to get going. The Broncos are in disarray, and have been horrendous on the road in recent years. This Thursday night matchup doesn’t do the Broncos any favors, so I’m siding with the youth movement from Arizona to be motivated and to win this straight up. — Go Against The Chalk with Arizona
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No, this isn’t my attempt at finding some of the worst teams in the NFL and blindly throwing a dart in their direction.
The Browns shouldn’t have been anywhere near a favorite last week against a much better Chargers team. But they shouldn’t be an underdog this week, even on the road against a Tampa Bay team mired in mediocrity.
The Buccaneers can’t play defense. It’s not sustainable to be that bad, especially against the pass. Tampa Bay gives up 9 yards per pass attempt, and that has gotten even worse in the last three games, with the Tampa Bay allowing 9.8 yards per pass attempt.
Baker Mayfield should bounce back after a rough game in week 6, and shouldn’t have any trouble navigating through that defense. The Browns own a much bigger advantage on the defensive side of the ball and can rush the passer.
That should help slow down this Tampa Bay offense, allowing the Browns to cover the 3.5 points. — Go Against The Chalk with Cleveland
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Washington Redskins
The Redskins are a weird team.
Of the five games Washington has played, only 24 of its 106 points have come in the second half. So it’s simple — Dallas needs to jump on the Redskins early and then dominant in the second half.
Both teams are similar in their approach, but I feel like I get better personnel with the Cowboys. Dallas has a better rushing game, offensive line and defensive line.
This will be close, but in the end, I trust the Cowboys personnel more than Washington’s. This game will cause some stress, but stay with it until the end. — Go Against The Chalk with Dallas
