Baseball season is barely more than a month old, but what does that matter when fresh over/unders have been released for the upcoming NFL season?
Thanks to Sportsbook.og, we have an early look at what Las Vegas believes will be the win totals for each NFL team.
I’ll take a look at each team this week and will continue today with the AFC South.
Houston Texans: Over/under 8.5 (-130 over/even under)
People who follow the NFL are expecting this division to be competitive and feature better teams than in the past.
The Texans limped their way into the playoffs last season and were steamrolled in the opening round. Thanks to Andrew Luck’s injury, the door was wide open for some other team to make it. The Texans took advantage. Now, many are expecting better days ahead for Houston, with Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, joining fantasy beast DeAndre Hopkins on the offense to go along with a stout defense.
I, however, am not sold.
By the end of the season, it will become apparent that Osweiler isn’t much different than Brian Hoyer. He’ll win a few games, but won’t be the determining factor in those wins. And we’ll find out right away what kind of quarterback he is, with five of his first seven games against Kansas City, New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Denver. If the Texans can get through that slate, the schedule opens up for more wins. If they’re 2-5 or 3-4, then nine wins will be a long shot. — Under
Indianapolis Colts: Over/under 9.5 (Even over/-130 under)
This division is all about everybody predicting three of the four teams showing improvement, while one suffers a continued letdown. The Colts are the whipping boy now, allowing me to take advantage of that misconception.
The only issue is that Luck will be fully healthy this season.
That, to me, is enough to book the over. Last season wasn’t great, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt based on being injured. Much like the Peyton Manning days, the Colts aren’t a great team. However, a great quarterback masks a lot of deficiencies and Luck will do that again this season.
I’m hammering Luck in fantasy football and the Colts in the regular season. Double-digit wins shouldn’t be tough to register. — Over
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/under 7.5 (-125 over/-105 under)
I was on the Jacksonville hype train long before anyone else was daring enough to jump aboard. Now it seems everybody wants on this locomotive and I’m jumping off. The offense was really good last year, but they depend on the vertical passing game so much, I’m not sure how that will translate to this year after defensive coordinators have a year’s worth of tape on last year’s breakout season.
Is Blake Bortles really that good? Or was it a combination of a bad defense allowing him to have several opportunities? I think the Jaguars defense will be much improved, but they haven’t shown me much in the past.
The schedule isn’t bad and we should know more about their season in the first four games before an early bye week. Jacksonville plays at home in three of those contests, against Green Bay, Baltimore and Indianapolis, with a game at San Diego mixed in the middle. If the Jags can go 3-1 in that time period, eight wins is a slam dunk. If they’re 1-3, then the under is happening. This will be a close one, but I’m going with seven wins for Jacksonville. — Under
Tennessee Titans: Over/under 5.5 (-165 over/+130 under)
If you’re going with the over, you might want to wait for this number to rise to six wins. Everybody’s buying Marcus Mariota entering the season. He showed flashes of brilliance last season and it’s not like the Titans weren’t at least close in some losses last season.
From weeks 2 to 12, the Titans lost nine games. Five of those losses were by a touchdown or less. The offense was lifeless in many of those occasions, scoring less than two touchdowns in six of those contests.
There should be improvement, but not much. The over is a safe play considering winning less than six games is difficult to do. However, I believe the cap for wins is at six, meaning that if anything goes wrong, the Titans will be under the threshold. For that reason, I’m banking on the under and taking the value with me. — Under
