We got back on the winning track last week, netting an above .500 record. This week offers some challenging games, with six games on the slate featuring spreads of a touchdown or more.
Here’s our five best ATS bets for week 14 in our NFL Lockness Monsters.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Season: 34-29-2 ATS
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-3)
The hype-train is at full steam ahead for the Steelers. After beating Indianapolis convincingly last week, the pundits and betting public agree that Pittsburgh may be one of the hottest teams in the AFC.
We don’t necessarily disagree, but when two teams of this capability play, we look past the offense, and go more toward the defense.
The Steelers have been on fire throwing the football lately, shredding Seattle and Indianapolis in the past two weeks. But let’s not sleep on the Bengals. Since that letdown against Houston on Monday Night Football, the Bengals have scored more than 30 points in three consecutive games.
Sure, the Steelers have a great compliment of wide receivers. But the weapons on the Bengals can compete with the Steelers, making the offenses near identical.
And defensively, there’s no doubt which team owns the advantage. The Bengals are a top-10 defense, while the Steelers are in the bottom-10.
The Bengals are at home and we just can’t trust the Steelers in these close matchups. Andy Dalton isn’t in primetime, so it’s safe to assume he should be good. Take the Bengals. — Go chalk with Cincinnati
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-4)
We liked the opening line better with the Buccaneers giving up less than a field goal, but we’ll still bite on the Bucs.
The Saints are atrocious on defense, allowing the most yards passing and rushing in the NFL. Last week, we liked New Orleans at home against Carolina. It worked for the cover, but we saw how energized that team was against the Panthers.
That game meant more to New Orleans and it still lost. We have to believe a letdown is in order this week against the improving Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is running the ball as well as any team in the NFL and Jameis Winston’s growth at the quarterback position has been better than any young quarterback (other than possibly Derek Carr.)
We don’t see the Saints getting up for this ballgame after a tough loss last week. Go with chalk again. — Go chalk with Tampa Bay
San Francisco at Cleveland (-1.5)
We like home favorites this week. That could be our downfall.
It’s a surprise to us, too, but we like Johnny Manziel and the Browns this week. We can’t imagine that sentence will happen very often in the future.
We’re assuming the betting public is going to go crazy over the 49ers after last week. We were surprised after last week’s victory for San Francisco and Blaine Gabbert actually hasn’t been that bad.
But we’re not buying San Francisco in back-to-back road games. Think about how the players perceive about this week. They won a tough road game (after being awful this season on the road) that no one believed they would win, and then they have to turn around this week to go to Cleveland.
Doesn’t sound too appetizing does it? This is another early Sunday kickoff and that should be a factor this week. The 49ers have been unsuccessful running the ball consistently this season and that’s the best way to defeat the Browns. A letdown is in the works this week for San Francisco, so we’re taking Johnny Football. — Go chalk with Cleveland
Minnesota (+9) at Arizona
Everyone’s ready to give up on the Vikings. That’s OK. That means we have a better number when betting Minnesota.
This is still a playoff team that just got embarrassed at home. And let’s not lose sight of Arizona’s schedule so far.
The Cardinals have beaten up on some of the worst teams in the NFL. Against teams with virtually no chance at going to the playoffs, the Cardinals are 8-1 straight up. The Cardinals have only faced three teams with playoff aspirations, and one of those teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers, had Landry Jones and Mike Vick, as quarterbacks during a win against Arizona.
In wins against playoff teams, the Cardinals have won those two games by a combined 10 points. Despite the problems last week, the Vikings are still good enough to be a playoff team. And on a short week, we’re confident in head coach Mike Zimmer’s ability to construct a solid defensive gameplan.
Everyone expected the Cardinals to experience a letdown last week at St. Louis. We expect that to happen this week. — Go against the chalk with Minnesota
Atlanta (+7.5) at Carolina
Carolina is going to get everyone’s best shot. And with Atlanta, that shot may be good enough to compete.
The Falcons have been awful recently. But we’re still not going to completely fade the Falcons. We sold on Atlanta’s DFS capabilities, but we’re still buying the Falcons as a possible contender against Carolina.
If Atlanta can get the running game going, then the Panthers will have difficulty in stopping the Falcons passing attack. We know Atlanta’s defense has been awful this year, too, but we’re betting on a letdown by Carolina this week.
The Panthers have played two highly emotional games against Dallas and New Orleans. The Panthers won both road contests, but that had to take a little out of the Panthers.
The Falcons are coming in under the radar and while the betting public and all the pundits give up on Atlanta, there’s still enough talent to make this game interesting. –– Go against the chalk with Atlanta
