With week 3 staring at us in the face, we think we know a little more about each team in the NFL.
The first two weeks are difficult to decipher which teams will actually continue to play well or if it’s just a mirage. We know New England will be good, but what about the New York Jets? Another week of information will provide a clearer picture of what to expect in the future.
We were 2-1 last week in the week 2 NFL betting guide, moving our season total to 5-1 overall against the spread for the season.
Here’s three games we’ll keep an eye on during Sunday.
Atlanta at Dallas (+2)
The Cowboys have been awful against the spread at home dating back to last year, going 3-8 against the spread during the pas two seasons. So why are we going with Dallas, especially with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant on the sidelines?
We don’t trust Atlanta.
The Falcons battled back from a 10-point deficit last week to beat the Giants, and survived a bad second half against Philadelphia to outlast the Eagles in week 1. The Falcons aren’t doing anything spectacular on offense or defense, but they’re 2-0 and the betting public is hopping on the bandwagon based on Dallas’ injuries.
We usually don’t back the Cowboys at home, based on that bad ATS number. However, oddsmakers are going too much in favor of Atlanta in this one. Brandon Weeden is a step down, but with only a week to prepare, usually defenses aren’t as nasty against backup quarterbacks in the first week. It’s the next few weeks that we worry about Dallas’ chances at covering spreads.
This week, the Falcons will face plenty of runs, and we expect the Cowboys to win this one without their best players. — Go against the chalk with Dallas
Tampa Bay at Houston (-7)
Last time we saw Houston, its quarterback Ryan Mallett was throwing the football 58 times. And despite airing it out that much against Carolina, the Texans still had several opportunities to tie the score late in the game.
We don’t expect the Texans to employ a similar strategy against the Buccaneers. The last time we saw Tampa Bay, it was coming back from an embarrassing week 1 loss with a win at New Orleans.
Last week’s win, though, is more telling about New Orleans’ season than Tampa Bay’s. Entering this week, we’re not favoring Tampa Bay, based on us not being sold on Tampa Bay’s defense and the back-to-back road game circumstance that we just don’t like, especially for a young team like Tampa Bay.
Houston will run the ball better in this one, and should control the tempo. This game should be in the two-touchdown variety, so the Texans won’t need to sweat this one out too much. — Go chalk with Houston
Denver at Detroit (+3)
Detroit hasn’t looked very good this season. The defense absolutely collapsed in week 1 and the Minnesota Vikings ran the ball all over Detroit’s front seven last week.
Those aren’t good signs with Peyton Manning coming into town.
But, we’re not giving up entirely on Detroit. Denver has been winning with smoke and mirrors during the first two weeks, and although the Lions haven’t won, they’ve been competitive. We’re not keen on either of these teams for the duration of the season, but the Lions front seven should get pressure on Manning, forcing him into the bad throws we’ve come to expect this season.
The Lions offense also should compete better at home, so we’re going against the betting public (which has moved this spread .5 points in Denver’s direction), and betting on the Lions. — Go against the chalk with Detroit
Other NFL games
Odds provided by Oddsshark
Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5) (Opening line has moved 1 point in Oakland direction)
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3) (Opening line has moved 1.5 points in Baltimore direction)
Jacksonville at New England (-14)
Pittsburgh (-2) at St. Louis
Philadelphia at New York Jets (-2.5) (Opening line has moved 5 points in New York direction)
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennessee (Opening line has moved 1.5 points in Tennessee direction)
San Diego at Minnesota (-1) (Opening line has moved 1 point in San Diego direction)
New Orleans at Carolina (-10) (Opening line has moved 6.5 points in Carolina direction)
San Francisco at Arizona (-6.5)
Buffalo at Miami (-3)
Chicago at Seattle (-15) (Opening line has moved 1 point in Seattle direction)
Kansas City at Green Bay (-6.5)
