Available teams are starting to shrink at an alarming pace in this year’s Survivor pool.
Arizona squeaked by, while my sleeper also won in week 10. With the weeks dwindling, many leagues will start to force participants to pick two teams in the coming weeks.
That makes hitting the sleeper pick even more important. Here’s the week 11 Survivor pool picks.
Teams Used: Seattle, Carolina, Miami, Washington, Baltimore (lost), New England, Green Bay, Denver, Minnesota (lost) and Arizona.
Best Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers
Picking against the Cleveland Browns isn’t a new strategy. It’s one that I wish I had employed throughout this season, but there’s no better time to start than now.
Cleveland owns the worst total defense in the NFL, while Pittsburgh has a top-half offense. And Cleveland doesn’t have a good enough offense to keep up with a Steelers offense now finally on the way to being healthier.
Ben Roethlisberger was back to the old Big Ben in week 10, throwing for 408 yards and three touchdowns in a loss to Dallas. That is a good sign for anyone looking for the Steelers to win in week 11, as Roethlisberger came back in week 9 from injury and didn’t look like he was healthy.
He looked much better last week and so I expect him to show up in a similar fashion in week 10.
The only part that could keep people away from Pittsburgh is the current four game losing streak Pittsburgh is currently riding. But I’m not as taken aback by the recent losses, especially with Roethlisberger out for the majority of two of those and the last three losses against teams with winning records.
Cleveland’s offense is anemic, averaging only 17.5 points per game, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, averages 23.8 points per game, even with all the injuries that have piled up in recent weeks.
With Roethlisberger back to full strength and Pittsburgh’s backs against the wall, I don’t expect Cleveland to put up much of a fight.
Sleeper Pick
Oakland Raiders
This is just the game that Houston loses.
I’ve referenced this several times in the last few weeks, but it’s worth repeating. Houston beats mediocre to bad teams and can’t beat the top-tier teams. With the way Oakland has played this season, I consider Oakland one of those upper echelon teams.
That spells trouble for Houston.
Let’s ignore the fact that the Texans got no favors from schedule-makers, having to travel from east to west in a week’s time. Houston averages slightly more points than Cleveland per game at 17.9 and has beaten only two teams with a winning record — an early season win against Kansas City and a victory over 5-4 Detroit.
Oakland is elite on the offensive side of the ball. So even if Houston does have a top-10 total defense, I have faith in Oakland’s ability to move the ball. And while the Raiders’ biggest weakness has been defense, it’s progressively getting better.
Oakland has allowed only one quarterback to go for more than 280 yards passing since week 5, and against Brock Osweiler, who managed less than 100 yards passing in week 10, I don’t expect a big outing for the big offseason acquisition.
The Raiders keep improving, while Houston seems relegated to being a team that can’t get past the top teams in the NFL.
Be Careful
Detroit Lions
Detroit is a bad favorite. It’s been that way for years and this year is no outlier.
The Lions have been favorites only three times this season and they have two losses straight up. And guess what? Detroit is a favorite in week 11 against Jacksonville.
It’s hard to blame oddsmakers for putting Detroit in that situation. Jacksonville has been atrocious this season. And Detroit has been better than many people expected heading into the 2016 season.
But this game screams of a possible upset.
Detroit probably isn’t as good as its record shows. The Lions own one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, while employing a bottom-half offense. They’ve been living on the edge all season long. No game featuring Detroit has been decided by more than a touchdown.
That’s nice if looking at Detroit as an underdog. But keeping teams in the game is a nightmare as a favorite.
And while Jacksonville has been extremely underwhelming this season, the Jaguars have fared OK in the last two weeks. A coaching shakeup happened after a week 8 loss against Tennessee, leading to a new offensive strategy.
The Jaguars competed well against Kansas City in week 9 and then fell just short against Houston in week 10. The talent is there for Jacksonville and most of those players are now fighting for jobs. That’s dangerous if you’re a Detroit fan.
Watch out for Jacksonville figuring it out in week 11 and putting in a far closer game than most believe.
