We didn’t know Andy Dalton would be knocked out of the game and the Bengals’ secondary would be depleted before giving our Lockness Monsters last week. We’re not making too many excuses, but had we known those items, we would have passed on the Bengals. This week, though, we’re focusing on motivation.
We went under .500 last week, but we’re not worried. We’ll get back on track this week with our best bets for week 15.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 36-32-2 ATS
Buffalo at Washington (+1.5)
We’re confused as to why the Bills are favorite this week. The Bills are playing back-to-back road games and the Redskins are much better at home than on the road.
At home this season, the Redskins are 5-2. On the road, they won their first game of the season last week against Chicago. So, we’re comfortable in believing in the Redskins at home.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins also has been far better at home than on the road. At home, he’s completing 74 percent of his passes and has a QBR of 111. On the road, he has a QBR of 74.
For the Bills, other than a emotional victory on a Thursday night at the New York Jets, they haven’t done much recently. We’ll chalk up that victory against New York to Rex Ryan’s ability to motivate his team in his own personal rivalry games.
Buffalo is 3-5 straight up in the last eight games, with four of those losses coming on the road. Buffalo had a chance last week to keep their playoff chances alive. It didn’t get the job done, while Washington showed toughness and grit last week with a road win.
We’re going with toughness and grit again this week. — Go against the chalk with Washington
Miami at San Diego (-2)
Miami going on a West Coast trip on a short week with no chance at making the playoffs. We’ve questioned the motivation level already in Miami, so we’re wondering if the Dolphins will even show up Sunday.
And we know the Chargers also are out of the playoff race, but we’re comfortable with them having enough edge to compete for the rest of the season.
The Chargers are getting healthier on the offensive line and with the receiving corps. The defense is still atrocious, but the Dolphins are even worse. Miami can’t stop the pass or the run and that will be an issue this week against the Chargers.
We’re not trusting the Dolphins to be ready for this game. — Go chalk with San Diego
Chicago at Minnesota (-6)
Maybe we’re looking too much into the motivation game of the NFL. But we can’t imagine the Bears will be too ready for this week’s game against the Vikings.
The Bears had an opportunity to make a run at the playoffs, but failed to do anything in the last two weeks at home. The Bears entered the last two games as favorites, and finished those games with losses.
Now, Chicago must square off against a Vikings team that is one of the best against the pass, which will hinder Jay Cutler’s ability to move the ball this week.
The Bears’ run defense is terrible, as seen these last two weeks, giving way to Adrian Peterson and the Vikings offense. It appears the Vikings are a slam dunk for the playoffs, but the team needs to get in the win column to elevate their confidence.
Minnesota is usually better at home and will try its best to forget about the last home loss to the Seahawks. — Go chalk with Minnesota
Tennessee at New England (-14.5)
Usually we hate to give away more than two touchdowns. But the Patriots are getting healthier and the Titans can’t score.
Tennessee is playing back-to-back road games and showed last week that its home win against Jacksonville two weeks ago carried over to last week. The Titans put too much emphasis on that win and failed to show up against the New York Jets.
We can’t imagine the Titans will show up this week against New England. With the added weapons for the Patriots, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. Against overmatched opponents at home this season, the Patriots have blown past that two-touchdown mark.
And we have to believe the Patriots will want to get that bad taste out of their mouths after losing their last home game against the Eagles. — Go chalk with New England
Arizona at Philadelphia (+3.5)
The Arizona Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFL. However, their wins this season against playoff-caliber teams haven’t been near as impressive as their victories against the NFL’s worst.
Arizona has played four teams with playoff aspirations this season. In its three victories, Arizona has won by a combined 13 points.
We’re not saying the Cardinals aren’t one of the best teams. We’re just saying they aren’t as dominant as many want to believe.
Arizona’s rush defense is good, but we’ve seen the Eagles pass better in recent weeks without having to rely on the run. The Cardinals will have difficulty to move the ball consistently against the Eagles. We’re getting more than a field goal, which should be enough to cover. — Go against the chalk with Philadelphia
