With the college and pro seasons still at least a week away, you have to get creative with your handicapping at this point of the season.
You’ve already circled your favorite teams to finish over and under in win totals. So what’s left to predict? In the world of sports gambling, pretty much everything.
BetOnline has listed odds for which NFL teams will finish with the best and worst records of 2016. The usual suspects are at the top with Green Bay leading the way at +600. Seattle is next at +650, with New England owning the top spot in the AFC at +750. Carolina and Pittsburgh are the only other teams with odds less than +1,000.
On the opposite side of the winning (or should I say losing?) spectrum, are odds for the teams with the worst record. Cleveland is the leader in the clubhouse at +350, with San Francisco as the only other team with odds less than +1,000 at +550.
Other teams in the running include Tennessee at +1,000, and Philadelphia and San Diego at +1,400.
I’m not booking the favorites in either of those categories.
Green Bay is all the rage, but that division is brutal. Minnesota is a legitimate title contender, and even without Calvin Johnson, Detroit should still be near a .500 team. And although Chicago has looked dismal and has me a bit nervous about predicting them to be better this season, the Bears should be poised for a decent season in year two of John Fox.
Instead, I’m looking at the Seahawks as my prohibitive favorite. The NFC West isn’t what it once was. St. Louis and San Francisco are down and feature quarterbacks who have no business starting in the NFL.
And while many are still on the Arizona train, I’m hopping off. That ship has sailed and the age of the Cardinals’ top players will be their demise. I’m expecting injuries and a down year in Arizona.
That leaves plenty of room for the Seahawks, which should have a return of their focus after losing a bit of edge last season. Back-to-back Super Bowls will do that to any team (other than the Patriots), and I expect Seattle to be tough on opponents week in and week out this season.
In the losers category, I understand why the Browns are so heavily favored, but I’m not buying it. Cleveland has some talent. The division is brutal, but the Browns will surprise some teams this season. They won’t go for eight or more wins, but six wins isn’t out of the question.
That leaves me focusing squarely on the Eagles.
I can’t believe the value I’m getting with Philadelphia at +1,400. The 49ers are garbage, but somehow, some way, Chip Kelly is going to prove his worth as an NFL coach, and win at least five games (OK, that’s not much proof as being an NFL coach, but that roster is filled with players deserving of practice squad roles).
Philadelphia’s roster is on par with some of the worst teams in the NFL. The quarterback situation is better than some of those rosters, but that defense is still full of holes.
It’s easy to be fooled by the preseason (i.e. see Chicago). But don’t give in to the rhetoric that Philadelphia is better on defense. That defense had overhyped, overpaid players all over the place last year. Now, they must learn a new scheme and with an offense void of much talent, they will have to carry that team.
It’s not going to happen and I see the Eagles as being a team that devolves later in the season.
If you’re looking for some sleepers, check out Indianapolis at +1,800 in the best record category and Washington Redskins at +2,000 in the worst record category.
The Colts have a healthy Andrew Luck, and although I believe that the division is improved, maybe Luck is so good (much like Peyton Manning was in his heyday), the Colts go out and pummel their divisional foes and work their way to 13 wins.
The Redskins, a playoff team from a year ago, is in line for a trip back to reality this season. They were able to capitalize on a weak division last season and caught lightning in the bottle with Kirk Cousins. Cousins returns to what we believe he is, and Washington falls prey to a horrific late-season slide, en route to three wins and the worst record in the NFL.
