Thanks to a missed extra point and missed field goals, the week 9 Survivor pick didn’t turn out so well.
I thought Minnesota would be able to turn things around against a team that has struggled this season on the road. However, there are much larger problems in Minnesota than I first believed, leading to another loss for the Survivor pool pick.
The Sleeper pick in Kansas City would have been better, but even that was too close for comfort.
The week 10 slate of games offers an opportunity to see the majority of games within that field goal spread with a few outliers representing double-digit spreads.
Here’s the week 10 Survivor pool picks.
Teams Used: Seattle, Carolina, Miami, Washington, Baltimore (lost), New England, Green Bay, Denver and Minnesota (lost).
Best Bet
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco is terrible. Enough said.
OK, if that’s not enough for you to back the Cardinals, then maybe this will. David Johnson is a top-three running back in the NFL and the 49ers would have a tough time stopping me from gaining 100 yards against them.
It’s unbelievable the numbers San Francisco is letting up on the defensive side of the ball. The 49ers are allowing opposing teams to rush for 193 yards per game, 47 yards more per game than the second-worst rush defense, Cleveland. The third-worst rushing defense, Miami, is allowing 57 fewer yards per game.
On a per rush attempt, the 49ers are are by far the worst rushing defense, allowing 5.3 yards per rushing attempt, 0.4 more than Washington, which owns the dubious honor of being the second-worst in that category.
So, Arizona will be able to run the football, which is a recipe for success for a team suddenly missing something in the passing game.
If you’re not sold on San Francisco’s defensive maladies, then maybe we should talk about Arizona’s defense. The Cardinals once again boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking first in total defense.
What does San Francisco rank? Dead last.
The Cardinals give up 297 yards per game, while San Francisco allows 428. The disparity isn’t much better on the offensive side of the ball either.
Arizona is a top-10 offense, while San Francisco ranks in the bottom-five for offensive prowess in the NFL. The Cardinals average 374 yards per game, while San Francisco puts up 314.
This is a statistical mismatch on paper and in real life.
Sleeper Pick
Philadelphia Eagles
I’m really running out of options, can’t you tell?
If I hadn’t already taken Carolina, New England or Baltimore, then I’d give those picks as sleepers. But I’ll keep the Sleeper pick also legitimate in the Survivor pool rules and give my reasons for liking Philadelphia.
There’s no hiding the fact the Eagles have struggled lately. Turnovers have been an issue and the defense hasn’t been as prolific as it was earlier this season.
But this is the NFL and the mood of a team can change in a week’s time.
We’re only two weeks removed from Philadelphia losing a hard-fought Sunday night overtime game to Dallas, in which it led for much of the game. And we’re only three weeks away from a victory against Minnesota, which doesn’t look like an all-time win at that moment, but is still a pretty good team.
So let’s not automatically rush to the Eagles being an easy loser at home to Atlanta, which carries with it one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Philadelphia has done most of its damage this season against bad defenses, going 2-1 against bottom-10 defenses. I also get Atlanta traveling on the road in back-to-back weeks, which can be a disaster for teams without a competent defense.
I believe Atlanta is a playoff team, but eventually that defense has to get better. That’s a hole I can’t ignore if I’m looking for a team outside the obvious ones in making a mark in this week’s Survivor pool.
Be Careful
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s tempting to take the Bucs in a spot against the Bears, but you should rethink that strategy.
The Bears are getting healthier and better. Jay Cutler is playing for a contract for a different team next year and the defense is gaining some steam.
The Bears are quietly putting together a top-half defense, limiting opponents to 338 yards per game. Chicago is a top-half defense against the run and the pass, while Tampa is the opposite, being in the bottom-10 in the pass and run.
And despite the statistics, things aren’t progressing the way it should in Tampa Bay. Jameis Winston still isn’t ready to vault into that top-tier quarterback conversation and the running game continues to battle injuries.
John Fox’s teams are generally solid and actually, despite the record, Chicago is a pretty solid team on both sides of the ball. The Bears get an extra lift with a sudden NFC North race shaping up, and will put pressure on Tampa Bay.
