It’s probably too little, too late.
I’m 9-2-1 ATS overall in the past two weeks in the NFL, with a 7-2-1 mark in the Las Vegas Westgate SuperContest during the past two weeks. But with week 11 upon us, unless I get super hot and start going undefeated each week, it probably won’t be enough to catch the leaders.
Either way, with a tough week on tap with several byes, here’s my favorite week 11 NFL picks, featuring my three favorites to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 30-26-4 ATS
SuperContest: 24-21-5 ATS (23 points)
Favorites: 15-14-1 ATS
Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins
A lot of handicappers predicted the demise of the Washington Redskins to happen last week against an inferior Tampa Bay team. And while the Buccaneers moved the ball consistently, they turned the ball over too much to compete for a victory.
But I won’t let the victory cloud my judgment on Washington’s ability to consistently win football games.
The Redskins are battling too many injuries to win games on a regular basis. Pretty much the entire offensive line is injured, along with several key players in other positions. That’s a major problem, especially against a Houston team that is playing as well as many others in the AFC.
The Texans are getting the job done on both sides of the ball, generating 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing just 5 yards per play on defense in the last three games.
The Redskins have fallen on hard times on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 6.5 yards per play in the last three games, most notably allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt in that time span.
I’m surprised this number is so low, so I’ll back the Texans. — Go Chalk with Houston
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a mismatch. And the Steelers will be out for blood.
Pittsburgh is an emotional team, so don’t dismiss last year’s AFC Divisional playoff result. The Jaguars dominated that game offensively and held on for a victory. That was supposed to be a win for the Steelers, setting up a rematch with the Patriots.
Now it’s time for payback, with the Jaguars touting an injured, less motivated roster. Pittsburgh averages more than a yard more per play on offense and the Steelers are actually allowing a yard less per play in the last three games compared to Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh is improving every week on the defensive side of the ball and the offense is good enough to move the ball against a fading Jacksonville defense.
The Steelers will be motivated in this one, so this could easily reach double-digits. — Go Chalk with Pittsburgh
Carolina Panthers (-4) at Detroit Lions
The Lions are a disaster at the moment.
This could be a sign to come for the remaining portion of the season, or it may just be a small blip on the radar. Either way, it should continue into week 11.
Detroit has been terrible on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. Detroit is averaging just 4.3 yards per play in the last three games and allowing 6.9. That’s a recipe for losses.
Detroit will return home in week 11 against a Carolina team that hasn’t been great either on the defensive side of the ball. However, I anticipate Carolina will be able to move the ball consistently with a solid ground game, to go along with a defense that should hold an advantage in multiple phases.
Don’t worry about last week’s blowout loss for the Panthers. That was a tough spot for Carolina, so I’ll lay the points. — Go Chalk with Carolina
