Week 13 was all about being really right…and really wrong.
I was all over Indianapolis and Detroit, which blew past their spreads. I was, however, way wrong about Miami, and then proceeded to narrowly miss my three bonus bets. So it was a bad week, but for some reason, I’m incredibly confident going into week 14.
Maybe it’s my inability to realize that my prognosticating has been inconsistent at best this season, but I have confidence that several teams that I believe are far better are in games with spreads too far off from what they’re supposed to be.
With four weeks left in the regular season, here’s my week 14 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Overall: 39-36-2 ATS
New York Jets at San Francisco (-3)
I don’t know if there’s a game that I’ve been more confident in during this season.
The Jets have given up for the season. I predicted that would happen in week 13, and I’m fairly certain there’s several pieces of evidence showing the Jets quit against Indianapolis.
Now New York players are asked to pack up from the East Coast and travel to San Francisco after playing a Monday Night Football game. Travel is important at this time of the year. And so is motivation.
Both are working incredibly against New York in week 14. Despite San Francisco’s off week in week 13, I’m still encouraged by the recent upswing in the 49ers. Colin Kaepernick will bounce back this week and play more like the player he was the four weeks before his dismal performance against Chicago in week 13. He’s a true run/pass threat, and the Jets are becoming as bad of a rush defense as pass.
They couldn’t get any rush on Andrew Luck last week, and they’ve allowed more than 90 yards rushing in four consecutive games. The 49ers need to run the football to have success. They were able to do that in recent weeks before not showing up in the snow at Chicago.
San Francisco is attempting to build for the future under Chip Kelly. The Jets had realistic playoff expectations entering the season and now are just trying to get through the final four games. This game won’t be close. — Go Chalk with San Francisco
Washington (-1.5) at Philadelphia
I can’t believe Washington is giving up less than a field goal.
The Eagles are who we anticipated them to be before the season began. Carson Wentz is a rookie quarterback who is now consistently playing like a rookie quarterback. The defense is hitting a wall after starting out the year as one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. And the skill position players are lacking skill.
And now they must square off against a Washington team fighting for a playoff bid. The Redskins are elite at passing, and while many still believe Philadelphia can stop the pass, that’s a fact that isn’t true anymore. Philadelphia has allowed more than 300 yards passing in two consecutive weeks. The Eagles also aren’t moving the ball anymore. Injuries have struck them hard, and with Wentz’s struggles, the Eagles just can’t get much going.
Washington has a difficult time stopping anyone, but so did the Green Bay Packers. When they squared off against Philadelphia two weeks ago, a Packers defense that was dominated by Washington the week before, was able to stymie Philadelphia.
Washington is a better team than Philadelphia. And I only have to give up 1.5 points. Don’t worry about the back-to-back road games either. This is a short trip for Washington, so it’s not quite as difficult as other road trips. — Go Chalk with Washington
Houston (+6) at Indianapolis
You’re never as good or bad as you looked the week before. That’s a mantra handicappers have to live by in the NFL. I played by it in week 13 with the Saints and I’m going with the same strategy with the Colts.
Indianapolis caught the Jets in a great situation. As I mentioned earlier, the Jets have given up for the season. They also don’t have the weapons to keep up with an Indianapolis team full of quality skill players. So I wasn’t surprised with the blowout win and I’m not going to blow it out of proportion.
There are still some significant deficiencies that Indianapolis must deal with. The defense is in the bottom-five in total defense. It allows 6.1 yards per play, the second-most of any team in the NFL. And it can’t keep its quarterback upright, allowing the second-most sacks in the NFL.
Those are numbers I can’t ignore against a Houston team with some talent. The Texans aren’t great and there’s some issues with them, too. But last I checked, they still can play defense.
During the last three Indianapolis wins, they played teams with little talent in the secondary. Tennessee is beat up, and Green Bay and New York don’t generally play pass defense.
Houston is a top-five passing defense. The thing that scares me about Houston is its offense’s inability to score points. But this game should be lower scoring than many believe, and with a defense like the Colts, Houston may find some space to move the chains. Houston has its back against the wall. I love getting almost a touchdown with Houston. — Go Against The Chalk with Houston
Bonus Bets
San Diego (+1.5) at Carolina — Carolina doesn’t play pass defense. San Diego can pass the ball as well as pretty much any team in the NFL. This is another game where I believe a team has quit. The Panthers don’t have anything left to play for, and the Chargers have actually been better on the road this year. Carolina needs to run the football to have success and the Chargers have shown the ability to stop the run. This is a tough one to pick, but San Diego should have the upper hand. — Go Against The Chalk with San Diego
Minnesota (-3.5) at Jacksonville — Minnesota still has a little bit of a run left in it. Not many teams are elite at a particular part of football. The Vikings have an elite defense. The schedule opens up for the Vikings, which could allow Minnesota to get on a roll. Jacksonville hasn’t shown the ability to move the ball against anyone this season and it won’t start in week 14. Look for Minnesota’s offense to focus more on the run and have a little more success than in other weeks. — Go Chalk with Minnesota
Denver at Tennessee (-1) — Denver is one of those teams on back-to-back road games, going from west to east. I know Denver is elite at defense, but Tennessee is a different team at home. In their last four home games, the Titans are 3-1 and have scored at least four touchdowns in three of those four contests. The Titans also can run the football, which has been Denver’s Achilles heel. The Titans are coming off a bye, so I expect to a see a well-rested Tennessee team blow by the Broncos. — Go Chalk with Tennessee
