How about those Cleveland Browns?
A miracle in week 6 helped keep my streak of predicting Tennessee Titans games correctly for a sixth consecutive week. After chasing Titans games all year last year and having little success, I’ve been all over the spreads this season, thanks in part to Tennessee’s inability to cover an onside kick in the fourth quarter in week 6.
That helped propel me to over .500 again. I’m not as confident in Tennessee’s game this week, but I’ll give it another whirl, just to see if the streak can stay alive.
Here’s the week 7 NFL best bets against the spread.
Last Week: 3-2-1 ATS
Overall: 19-15-2 ATS
Minnesota (-3) at Philadelphia
The betting public must have had the same thoughts I did when this line was released this week. The Vikings opened as a 1.5-point favorite…after a bye week.
Are you kidding me?
The public pounced on the number, so I’m locking it in at minus-3. My suggestion would be to not delay, because this number could swell even more.
Philadelphia had a nice little run in the beginning of the season, but maybe we overvalued those offensive outbursts. The first three games were against Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Chicago.
The Steelers are banged up and the other two teams have a combined record of 1-11. So we’re not exactly talking about world beaters, but we of course rushed to judgment and declared Carson Wentz as the next Steve Young.
Let’s not get too carried away. The rookie tallied a completion percentage of 50 percent last week against a bad Washington defense, a week after he dinked and dunked his way to 238 yards passing against another bad defense in Detroit.
In fact, four of his first five opponents are defenses that rank in the bottom 12 in total defense in the NFL. That’s a nice way to start a rookie campaign.
Now he has to suit up against the second-best defense in the NFL, statistically speaking. The Vikings are limiting opponents to 4.4 yards per play, the best number in the NFL and have harassed quarterbacks to the tune of 19 sacks in only five games, two less than the top team which has one more game under its belt.
Oh and did I mention Sam Bradford is making his return to Philadelphia with a better team? This is why Minnesota is unbelievable against the spread. I can’t believe the value I’m getting with this pick. — Go Chalk with Minnesota
New York Giants (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams
I’ve talked about the Rams recent travel schedule and it’s worth repeating. Los Angeles is being forced to go from Los Angeles to Detroit to London in three weeks.
The Giants, meanwhile, stayed at home last week after traveling to Green Bay in week 5.
But it’s not all about the travel. Let’s look at each teams’ losses. Los Angeles has lost at home to Buffalo, and on the road to San Francisco and Detroit. New York has lost to Washington, Minnesota and Green Bay, a combined 12-4 overall.
Offensively, it’s all about the pass for New York, and against the Rams that’s not a death sentence anymore. Los Angeles doesn’t rush the quarterback like it used to and the Rams are dealing with major injury issues in the secondary.
That’s a major weakness that New York will exploit in London. New York also does a decent job against the run, one of 11 teams in the NFL to allow less than 100 yards per game. That will take away Todd Gurley’s ability to get going, forcing Case Keenum to pass more.
It was a nice little run for Los Angeles from weeks 2 to 4. That honeymoon is over. The Giants are a better team and should be considered more than a three-point favorite. — Go Chalk with New York Giants
San Diego (+6.5) at Atlanta
I know the record says who you really are in the NFL, but it doesn’t tell the whole story for San Diego.
The Chargers have been the best team in the NFL in the first half of games. That doesn’t happen by accident. Weird things sometimes happen in the second half and the margin of error between winning and losing is so slim in the NFL, sometimes the win or loss at the end of regulation doesn’t give bettors an indication of the better team against the spread.
San Diego can move the chains and it’s doing a good job recently of keeping the ball in its possession. That will be key against the Falcons.
Statistics on the defense and offense show a team more suited for 3-3 or 4-2 than the Chargers’ current state of 2-4. San Diego is limiting third-down conversions and is able to convert those offensively.
If they can do that consistently against Atlanta, this game will be within one score going into the fourth quarter.
The Falcons are good, but that defense has me concerned. The Falcons are a bottom-10 defense. Of those bad defenses, only Oakland, Atlanta and Pittsburgh have a winning record.
Teams favored by almost a touchdown with a bad defense don’t always work out so well. Be cautious with Atlanta as a big favorite going forward. — Go Against the Chalk with San Diego
Bonus Bets
Indianapolis (+3) at Tennessee — Everyone’s jumping off the Colts bandwagon after last week’s collapse. These are professionals, so it shouldn’t last into this week. Indianapolis still has Andrew Luck and the Titans’ two-game winning streak is on the backs of sub-par competition. — Go Against the Chalk with Indianapolis
Buffalo (-3) at Miami — Buffalo has to run the football to win games. Miami is once again one of the worst teams against the run. The Dolphins had a nice win last week, but it won’t carry over to week 7. — Go Chalk with Buffalo
Seattle (+2) at Arizona — I love how we believe Arizona is back. The Cardinals have won back-to-back weeks against San Francisco and the New York Jets, which own a combined record of 2-10. They’re not back and they’ll prove it in week 7. — Go Against the Chalk with Seattle
