My underdogs haven’t been the problem so far this season in the NFL. It’s my favorites.
I hammered home two of three underdogs in week 6, with both of those winning straight up. Week 7 offers some challenges with smaller spreads, but there are still some matchups to exploit.
Here’s the week 7 NFL picks featuring the three best underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 10-7-1 ATS
Overall: 15-20-1 ATS
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs. LA Rams
I’ve been on the Rams bandwagon all season. I believe they will battle for a playoff spot, but in recent weeks, something’s been missing.
Last week’s win basically featured Jared Goff being very limited in his progressions, with a running game that isn’t as explosive as once before. The Rams are averaging 116 yards per game (13th in the NFL), but are averaging only 4 yards per carry (tied for 19th).
And Goff isn’t showing the maturation that I anticipated as the season progressed. He still has some ability, but his completion percentage has been below 60 in four of the last five games. That won’t get any easier against an Arizona defense that can still stop the pass at times. Last week’s effort didn’t help, but that game flow was not in the best interest of padding defensive passing stats for the Cardinals.
The Cardinals still only allow quarterbacks to complete a little more than 60 percent of passes and teams are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry against the Cardinals. This matchup sets up well for an Arizona team that has enough experience to know how to approach a London game. I know I get a team unable to win in different time zones, but I’m chalking this up to a different circumstance.
There’s too much evidence pointing to the Cardinals in this game, so I like Arizona to win this straight up. — Go Against The Chalk with Arizona
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Every time we believe all is right with the Steelers, they go and lose to the Bears or Jaguars. So while everyone’s piling back into the Steelers bandwagon, I’ll stay on the sidelines.
Pittsburgh still allowed Kansas City to stay in that game in week 6 despite dominating the first three quarters. The offense just isn’t able to push the ball downfield, making it difficult to run away from teams. Cincinnati, believe it or not, actually has a better defense than the Chiefs, so expect more resistance against Pittsburgh’s rushing attack.
The Bengals are giving up just 262 yards per game. That will put pressure on Pittsburgh to sustain drives, giving way to more field goal opportunities. I also get a rejuvenated Bengals offense coming off a bye week. I like my chances at a close game. — Go Against The Chalk with Cincinnati
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
This is a gut-check game for a team that has elite talent at certain positions.
The Ravens were embarrassed on their home field in week 6, losing to the Chicago Bears in overtime. Baltimore looked sluggish and the passing offense is one of the worst in the NFL.
Statistically, the matchup doesn’t work that well in Baltimore’s favor. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Ravens can’t move the football. However, the Vikings are highly dependent on proper game flow, meaning they can’t fall behind early.
If that happens, the Vikings are forced to pass, which would work into Baltimore’s defensive scheme. Baltimore can still defend the pass and it can be hard on quarterbacks. The Ravens are limiting opposing quarterbacks to QBR’s of 71, the fourth-best mark in the league.
I don’t like to give up that many points for a team that can’t win in multiple ways. Minnesota needs to establish a running game and grind out wins. If Baltimore can put up some early points, that will disrupt the game plan and will work in Baltimore’s favor. This should be closer than many believe. — Go Against The Chalk with Baltimore
