More byes shouldn’t be a problem once again for our best bets.
I was an overtime away from going 5-1 against the spread in the NFL in week 8. I’ll take it considering I’ve had some luck come my way during the season.
One of those teams on a bye, New England, will be the most interesting team against the spread going forward. The Patriots are pretty much a guarantee against the spread at the moment and those numbers will likely only get higher.
How high will oddsmakers push the spread until it’s too high? That will be one of the things to watch in the second half of the season.
For the teams actually playing in week 9, here’s the week 9 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 4-2 ATS
Overall: 27-19-2 ATS
New York Jets (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
New York isn’t as bad as it showed early in the season.
Offensively, the Jets are a middle-of-the-pack rushing team that have turned the ball over more than any other team in the NFL.
Defensively, they own an elite rush defense and are terrible against the pass. They aren’t bottom dwellers in any statistical categories other than turnovers and passing defense.
I’ve watched enough NFL to realize that turnovers generally work themselves out by the end of the year. The Jets are employing a lower-volume passing attack with Ryan Fitzpatrick, allowing the running game to be more of a weapon.
That will limit the turnovers and plays into the Jets hands against the Dolphins. While New York is an elite rushing defense, Miami is one of the worst in the NFL, giving up the third-most yards per game this season.
Matt Forte has gobbled up the most carries of the season in the last two weeks, so expect plenty of Forte in week 9. What also helps is that Miami has turned its season around in recent weeks thanks to a renewed interest in…guess what…the running game.
The biggest problem — New York, as mentioned already before, is the best in the NFL at limiting the opposition’s running game.
With Ryan Tannehill expected to carry the load, the smart money would be on the Jets covering more than a field goal. — Go Against the Chalk with New York Jets
Tennessee Titans (+5) at San Diego Chargers
Do we really think San Diego is five points better than Tennessee?
San Diego hasn’t looked bad in recent weeks, going 2-1 against Denver and Atlanta. But we’re only a few weeks removed from San Diego being on the cusp of firing its head coach.
The Chargers aren’t as bad as they appeared in the early going, but we’re swinging the line too much in San Diego’s favor. Does this line mean that San Diego would actually be favored in Tennessee this week?
That’s way too much of an overreaction to San Diego’s recent 2-1 stretch.
Don’t forget. San Diego is coming off back-to-back road games against top competition. They’re still battling with injuries, and the Titans rush the passer as well as any team in the NFL.
And San Diego just so happens to be one of the worst teams against the pass rush in the NFL.
Philip Rivers is running out of people to throw the ball to and Tennessee is better than you think. They can run and have showed in recent weeks to develop more of a passing game. This game is much closer than this spread would indicate. — Go Against the Chalk with Tennessee
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
It may be time for the Panthers to start playing more like the NFC champion it was last year.
Carolina has gone through some growing pains, but we’ve seen this before out of Carolina. It was only two years ago that Carolina started the season at 3-8-1, only to rattle off five consecutive victories, including a playoff win against Arizona.
This year was similarly slow and the Panthers are now in serious danger of missing the playoffs at 2-5. But they’re getting healthier and that pass rush was dynamic in week 8 against Arizona.
The offense ran the ball well against a good Arizona team in week 8 and it looked the part of what we expected coming into this season.
The spread is low based on the Rams getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball, too. This game should be close, but the offense for Los Angeles just isn’t good enough to put constant pressure on Carolina’s defense.
If Carolina is going to push for a playoff spot, it has to win this game, with contests against Kansas City, New Orleans, Oakland and Seattle during the next four weeks.
I like teams with their backs against the wall and Carolina has proven to make late-season pushes before. — Go Chalk with Carolina
Bonus Bets
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6) — Everyone is selling Minnesota’s stock. Detroit has been awful on the road since a week 1 win against Indianapolis. The Lions have to pass to be successful and Minnesota is a top-five passing defense. Don’t pay attention to the pundits. This one gets ugly early. — Go Chalk with Minnesota
Jacksonville (+9) at Kansas City — I just don’t learn my lesson. Jacksonville still has talent and someday, that will show up in 2016. Kansas City is good, but I’m not sure if I believe they should be almost double-digit favorites. The Jaguars get a spark from this week’s coaching change and keep this within single digits. — Go Against the Chalk with Jacksonville
Dallas at Cleveland (+7.5) — One of these days, Cleveland is going to win a game. It is resilient and stays in most ball games. Dallas is coming off an emotional Sunday night win against division rival Philadelphia and Cleveland is welcoming back Corey Coleman to its depleted receiving corps. Dallas experiences a let down. — Go Against the Chalk with Cleveland
