Now that Golden State and Cleveland have finally made the NBA Finals, don’t be so sure of the slam dunk choice.
Oddsmakers are backing the Warriors, setting the price at -220 in favor of Golden State, compared to Cleveland at +180. This will be the best price available for the Cavs during the entire series, so for my money, I’m jumping on Cleveland right away.
Everybody’s back on the Warriors hype train. But if past history is an example of what to expect, we should see the Warriors struggle in the early going before making it a series.
Last year, Golden State went down 2-1 in two separate series, including the Finals against the Cavs. This year, the Warriors just battled back from down 3-1 against Oklahoma City to reach the Finals once again.
With that knowledge, it makes sense to hold off on taking the Warriors until the series has enough legs to reduce the Warriors’ odds. In the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors opened at -400.
By the tip of Game 2, Golden State’s odds had dwindled to -190. Before Game 5 and trailing 3-1, oddsmakers set Golden State’s number at +230. So it makes sense to wait a game or two, just to see if Golden State falls behind early, giving bettors a better value with the Warriors.
And for my money, I’m going with the Cavaliers for the series anyway. Oklahoma City was the better team in the Western Conference Finals. If it wasn’t for Klay Thompson hitting every shot in the gym in Game 6, and then Curry joining Thompson with ridiculous makes in Game 7, then Golden State wouldn’t be in this position.
That is how the Warriors play basketball. They can sink you in a two-minute span with a barrage of 3’s, but the Cavaliers are more equipped to handle an offensive outburst than the Thunder were in the final games of the series.
The biggest key to this series is the play of Andre Iguodala. He was Finals MVP last year for a reason. And his defense on Kevin Durant helped stymie the Thunder’s offense in the fourth quarter of Game 6, allowing Golden State to make a comeback.
If he can keep up his defensive prowess in the Finals, the Warriors may have a chance. However, to me, even if he can slow down LeBron James or whoever else he guards, the Cavs have enough personnel to score at a higher clip than the Warriors.
