Every year, at least one team wears the glass slipper into the next weekend. But what makes a team a Cinderella in the NCAA tournament?
For this exercise, it’s any team that has a double-digit seed by its name.
Here’s one team from each region that has the best opportunity to be playing competitive basketball when the Sweet 16 commences next weekend.
East
12th-seeded UNC Wilmington
My history with the Seahawks goes back a ways. I love underdogs, so when Brett Blizzard and company strolled into the 2003 NCAA tournament as an 11 seed, I was all over UNC Wilmington.
I picked them to go to the Sweet 16, so it was natural I was glued to the TV set, watching them play sixth-seeded Maryland. And had it not been for a miracle three-pointer by the Terrapins at the buzzer, I would still be basking in the glow of my correct prediction.
Instead I was mocked and still haven’t let go of that moment. Now it’s time for revenge. The Seahawks press and create turnovers. They aren’t great on defense, but who cares against a Virginia team that can’t score. The Cavaliers are dangerous if they get out of the first round. But they’re susceptible to early round exits because they can’t score.
The Seahawks can score and they will do it often against Virginia. UNC Wilmington should grab an upset and then will face more defense in the second round against Florida or East Tennessee State, which shouldn’t be a problem.
West
11th-seeded Xavier
Xavier believes it belongs with the big-name teams. And they’re correct in that assumption.
The Musketeers are underseeded in this position and square off against an extremely beatable Maryland team in the first round. Xavier is tougher mentally than Maryland and should be able to outmuscle the Terps in the first round.
A potential matchup in the second round against Florida State also doesn’t scare me, giving Xavier a strong chance to be dancing into the Sweet 16.
Midwest
11th-seeded Rhode Island
Rhode Island might actually be the most talented team in the first-round matchup against Creighton.
Injuries have hurt the Blue Jays during the season and it was evident in the Big East championship game that Creighton can’t consistently score. Creighton limped into the conference tournament, and got hot for a few days. I don’t expect the same thing this week.
Rhode Island has won its last eight games and it’s punishing teams on the defensive end. Rhode Island should get past Creighton in the first round, which opens up a matchup against an Oregon team also dealing with injury issues.
A healthy Ducks team would cruise into the Sweet 16. However, that’s not the case, so Rhode Island has a clear path to the second weekend.
South
12th-seeded Middle Tennessee State
This region presents plenty of opportunities for early upsets. Wichita State was wildly underseeded, but a matchup against Kentucky in the second round scares me more than Middle Tennessee’s path.
I don’t get the love for Minnesota. The Big 10 was down this year and the Golden Gophers don’t really offer me much as a five-seed. They’re the weakest of the bunch and face a team that won 30 games, with a roster pretty much the same from last year’s team that won a first-round game.
Everyone’s talking about the Blue Raiders as an upset special, so that worries me a little. But even though Minnesota and Butler (in the second round) will be ready for Middle Tennessee, it won’t be enough.
This is my highest confidence pick for a double-digit seed moving on to the Sweet 16.
