South Region: Eyeing the best bets, upsets and Final Four lock

The South region is my top choice for mayhem. While the national pundits believe in the blue bloods (and there’s plenty of that happening in the South), I’m more interested in the wildly ridiculous seeding that occurred in the South region, especially Minnesota and Wichita State.

Here’s the breakdown for the South region.

Best Bets

Middle Tennessee (Even) vs. Minnesota

Normally I would back off a line that is so opposite from what the seeding actually was. However, the Blue Raiders are destined for the Sweet 16. Middle Tennessee can score and the talent doesn’t take a back seat to Minnesota’s. The Big 10 was down, but somehow, the Golden Gophers earned a No. 5 seed. Minnesota isn’t ready for the spotlight, and Vegas is right about Middle Tennessee. A No. 12 always wins and Middle Tennessee has the best resume and matchup to move on as a 12 seed. — Go with the win with Middle Tennessee State

Kent State (+17.5) vs. UCLA

I know everyone’s banking on the Bruins in the Sweet 16, but I have some doubts. Steve Alford is a known choke-artist when it comes to the NCAA tournament and his team doesn’t play any defense. The offense is there, but against a lesser opponent like Kent State, that could come back to haunt them. Kent State doesn’t have any good wins on the year, but they generally don’t get blown out. UCLA’s defense will hurt them at some point in this tournament and with more than 17 points, I’m willing to wait this one out until the end. — Go Against The Chalk with Kent State

Northern Kentucky vs. Kentucky (-19.5)

For once, there’s not a ton of talk about Kentucky. There’s some, but not as much as usual for this time of year. Kentucky has continued to improve throughout the season and will boast a heavy talent advantage over Northern Kentucky. The Wildcats will not look past their opponent with it being an in-state team and a first weekend that could prove to be more difficult than they would have imagined. I’m going with the Wildcats in a big way. — Go Chalk with Kentucky

Texas Southern (+26.5) vs. North Carolina

Texas Southern was not seeded correctly. They should at least be on the 15-line, instead of the 16. There’s something missing with North Carolina and they seem disinterested at times. They won’t be interested in this first weekend either and Texas Southern will be competitive for a little while in this one. Texas Southern has some weapons and can keep this closer than many believe. — Go Against The Chalk with Texas Southern

Ranking the Double-Digit seeds

1. No. 12 Middle Tennessee State — The bracket opens up enough that Middle Tennessee should have a decent path to the Sweet 16. Vegas has the Blue Raiders as equal to Minnesota and Butler doesn’t scare me in the second round. The team has experience and isn’t afraid of the bright lights.
2. No. 10 Wichita State — If Kentucky wasn’t in Wichita State’s way, I would book the Shockers as the best double-digit seed in the entire tournament. But I really like Kentucky (see above and below), so I don’t believe the Shockers can get to the second weekend. However, if Wichita State does make the Sweet 16, they should be considered a dark horse Final Four team.
3. No. 13 Winthrop — No one is talking about Winthrop. That could be a major mistake. Winthrop is 17-2 in 2017, and both losses have come in overtime. They can score and should put pressure on a Butler team that does own some bad losses.
4. No. 11 Wake Forest/Kansas State — Both teams can play defense, so that offers an opportunity to compete. However, I don’t like the matchup against Cincinnati in the first round, so I’m not in love with either of these teams.
5. No. 16 Texas Southern — I don’t see North Carolina as being as good as everyone believes and Texas Southern isn’t that bad. In fact, I believe they’re underseeded. They’ve played a lot of good teams and have 11 upperclassmen. They haven’t lost since early February and should give the Tar Heels at least a good half.
6. No. 14 Kent State — If Kent State wins in the first round, it won’t win in the second round. This team isn’t good enough to make it to the second weekend, but it should stay within 20 points of UCLA in round 1.
7. No. 15 Northern Kentucky — It’s a nice story, but Northern Kentucky doesn’t belong as a 15th seed. Kentucky will dismantle them and the underdog story will end Friday night.

Final Four Lock

Sweet 16 — No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee State — Middle Tennessee gives a valiant effort, but eventually falls short.

Sweet 16 — No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 2 Kentucky — I’m not sold on UCLA, so Kentucky gets a semi-shocking matchup with the Bearcats. Kentucky shouldn’t have much trouble in this one and will advance to the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight — No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Kentucky — Something’s missing in North Carolina this year and it will rear its ugly head in this game. Kentucky will pull out a close one late, with clutch shooting in the final moments.