One week away from the Big Dance and things are starting to get clearer when it comes to the NCAA tournament field.
This year appears to be the perfect opportunity for those people who like the upsets when filling out a bracket. I’m usually guilty of being one of those guys, so this should be the year to grab some value when predicting the champion.
Here’s my best picks in terms of betting value.
Wichita State, +3300
The Shockers are getting into the tournament, so that passes a major test of being on this list. Even if they don’t win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, Wichita State should be a single-digit seed.
The Shockers have plenty of experience heading into the Big Dance and I love the time off the MVC tournament gives teams before the tournament. The MVC tournament concludes Sunday, a week-and-a-half before the NCAA tournament begins.
That should give Wichita State plenty of rest en route to a big two weeks. We’re just three years removed from the Shockers’ Final Four appearance, and in two of the last three seasons, Wichita State has been in the Sweet 16. Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are the unquestioned leaders and will be ready to be a dark horse title contender.
Wichita State should be on everyone’s list as a Sweet 16 darling and shouldn’t be far off the radar as being a high value pick for an overall championship.
Iowa State, +3300
The Cyclones come in with the same number as the Shockers and that should create plenty of action. The Cyclones have lost nine games by a combined 50 points, with two of those losses coming by 10 points apiece. Iowa State will be in tight games, so that makes it a little difficult to depend on them in the early rounds.
The Cylcones have some bad losses this season, especially on the road, so they should be considered a risky team in the first weekend. However, if Iowa State can get to the second weekend, it could be the most dangerous team left in the tournament. Georges Niang is as experienced as anybody and Monte Morris should be considered a pro prospect. The biggest issue with Iowa State is if it can close games (which it hasn’t done well this season) and if it will play any defense.
At this number, it’s tough to find a team with few weaknesses. Iowa State has some deficiencies, but when it is playing well, it is one of the most explosive teams in the country.
Indiana, +3300
This number is obviously a popular one from oddsmakers, giving these teams the 13th-best odds in the country.
The Hoosiers won the Big 10 regular season title and are still getting no love. That’s OK, because I’ll ride the Hoosiers all the way to the Final Four and beyond. Once again, though, it may be a little tricky in the early going, especially since Indiana relies heavily on the outside shot.
Against an underdog, if those shots aren’t falling, Indiana may fall victim to the upset. However, if the Hoosiers can get to the second weekend, that outside shot should be the equalizer against teams that may have more talent. Only six power programs have attempted more three-point field goals than the Hoosiers this year in Division I basketball.
The reason why Indiana has been so successful, though, is those shots have fallen. The Hoosiers are ranked fifth in the nation in three-point field goal percentage.
Yogi Ferrell is a good enough player to carry a team, so I’m expecting him to come up big starting in a couple of weeks.
Arizona, +3300
These teams have a lot in common. They have a specific strength, but also have shown some weaknesses throughout the year. In a normal college basketball year, these teams would likely fall short of a title. However, this isn’t a normal year. It’s the year of the upset, so expect the unexpected during tournament time.
That should help the Wildcats. The Wildcats have seven total losses by a combined 27 points. Two of those losses came on a neutral court or at home, while the other five were on the road. A few bounces here or there and the Wildcats could be mentioned as a top seed.
What I like most about Arizona is its rebounding ability. The Wildcats outrebound the competition by an average of 9.9 rebounds a game, the fifth-best mark in the country. Arizona generally doesn’t have to worry about keeping up with the opposition’s talent, so the ability to rebound is another solid attribute to help the Wildcats compete for a title.
