The college basketball carousel is almost over and another team is atop oddsmakers’ favorites list with the NCAA basketball tournament less than two weeks away.
Kansas is now the favorite at +500, a much different story than just two weeks ago when Oklahoma, Michigan State and North Carolina were the only teams at less than +1000 to win the college basketball title. Michigan State and North Carolina are still toward the top, at +600 and +800, respectively, but a new team has entered the conversation.
After starting the season as once again a favorite to win the championship, Kentucky had disappeared from oddsmakers’ minds. Now, after winning six of the past eight games, the Wildcats are making a move up the charts. Oddsmakers don’t seem to be bothered by the two losses in that time – one in overtime at Texas A&M and another at Vanderilt.
I have to believe oddsmakers are basing their opinions on Kentucky’s massive talent accumulation. It’s been proven in recent years that youth isn’t much of an issue during the Big Dance, so oddsmakers are using that knowledge to propel the Wildcats into a favorite role in March.
I don’t buy it. This team isn’t one of Jim Calipari’s most talented teams (despite being very good), and Calipari is known for not getting the most out of his teams come March Madness.
And I’ve said before that I’m taking value come NCAA tourney time. Favorites have been up and down all year.
I still don’t mind Iowa State, listed at +3300. The Cyclones have the talent to compete with anyone, but do they have enough in the tank to play defense, rebound and finish games? I’m not so sure.
However, the Cyclones have shown in the past to be able to get on a roll during conference tournament team, meaning they should have enough in them to do that in the tournament that actually matters.
If I don’t go with Iowa State, then I’m grabbing Indiana…now. The Hoosiers will move up the charts now that they’ve won the Big 10 regular season title. They’re listed at +3300 right now and have enough players who can make big shots.
If they aren’t shooting well (that sounds stupid, but it’s especially true for the jump-shooting Hoosiers), then they can lose to anyone. And I’m not so sold on their wins during the conference slate, but I’m willing to ignore that with the potential for Indiana to compete well.
If you’re looking for long-shots, then Dayton would be a decent bet. The Flyers have shown in the past to be a good team during March Madness. And they’ve rattled off 14 wins in 15 games at one point this season. They’ve fallen back a bit lately, but that’s OK. With a number at +10000, you have to be willing to look past some things.
