The field of 68 is set and oddsmakers are still showing the most love for the usual suspects.
Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State have topped the odds in recent weeks, and after the brackets were set, that mindset remained the same. The Jayhawks, the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed, own the best odds to win the NCAA men’s tournament at +650.
No. 1 seed North Carolina isn’t far behind at +700, while the Spartans, a No. 2 seed, is at +750.
Oddsmakers have little faith in Oregon as a No. 1 seed. While No. 1 seed Virginia has the fourth-best odds at +1100, the Ducks are tied for ninth with three-seed West Virginia at +1800.
The top-10 features only one other non-No. 2 seed. Kentucky, a four-seed matched in the same half of the bracket with the Tar Heels, own the fifth-best odds at +1300. The Wildcats consistently climbed the odds list as the season came to a close, and the SEC tournament victory propelled the Wildcats to being a popular Final Four choice by the media.
Some other teams that oddsmakers love compared to the seeding are:
- Maryland, +2800 — The committee showed little love for the Big 10. Oddsmakers are showing plenty of adoration in terms of odds to win a title. The Terrapins are ranked 12th, according to odds, as a fifth-seed. Maryland showed this year the ability to win big games, so that’s likely the reason for the solid outlook from oddsmakers.
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Purdue owns solid odds to win the NCAA title. Flickr Indiana and Purdue, +3000 — This is an All-Big-10 love show (see below). The Hoosiers and Boilermakers also garnered a fifth seed, but are ranked 13th, according to oddsmakers. That’s more than 10 spots better their seeding. Much like the Terrapins, both of these teams have won consistently this year, especially the Hoosiers, which won the Big 10 conference. The biggest issue with the Hoosiers is their region is brutal, with North Carolina and Kentucky on their side of the bracket. Purdue has a more favorable bracket, but be careful in the second round with an experienced Iowa State team on the horizon.
- Iowa, +4500 — The Hawkeyes are a seven-seed, but are ranked 19th, according to oddsmakers. Oddsmakers are likely looking at Iowa’s mid-season run, that included several top-tier wins in the Big 10. Lately, Iowa has been atrocious, but at this time of the season, that can all change in one game. The public is siding with Iowa’s ability to win games as a motivator to picking them as a long-shot champion.
- UConn, +8000 — The Huskies are seeded ninth, but are tied for 25th in odds, according to oddsmakers. The public is likely enamored with UConn’s magical run through its conference tournament. They must remember the last time UConn made a run like that in the conference tournament. That concluded with a seventh seed and a national championship. Tired legs or not, the Huskies have solid odds.
- Gonzaga and Wichita State, +8000 — Both of these teams are used to the mid-major spotlight, so it’s not surprising these 11 seeds are tops when it comes to double-digit seeds. The committee ranked these teams as 44th and below. Oddsmakers are bumping them up to 25th. Both teams should get plenty of love from people filling out their brackets, based partly on perception and mostly on experience.
Some teams that oddsmakers hate compared to the seeding are:
- Miami and Texas A&M, +3300 — The committee ranked these teams as three seeds. Oddsmakers have a different outlook. The two teams are tied for 15th in the best odds to win the title. It’s not far off from their seeding, but they’re trailing teams seeded worse, like Duke, Kentucky and the Big 10 squads. There’s not much to love about these teams, so the public doesn’t seem too excited about their prospects.
- Iowa State, +4500 — Oddsmakers are banking on the Cyclones to have another early exit this season. The fourth-seeded Cyclones are ranked 20th, according to oddsmakers, the same ranking as their in-state rival Iowa Hawkeyes, which are seeded seventh. The Cyclones have plenty of experience, but the public may be shy to put too much stock in Iowa State after watching a first round loss last season to UAB.
- Utah, +6600 — Oddsmakers have a far worse perception of the Utes than the committee. Utah is by far the lowest-ranked three-seed, at 22nd, just behind fellow Pac-12 member and sixth-seeded Arizona Wildcats at +5000. Once again, Utah doesn’t have that national name and the public just doesn’t have much incentive to take Utah. Oh and getting smoked in the conference final likely didn’t help matters.
