It’s time for NCAA March Madness. There’s less than a week to prepare your bracket for the insanity to ensue later this week, so I’m breaking down the three favorites that you should be the most worried about when filling out your bracket.
I looked at teams seeded fourth or better and found the three most likely to be packing their bags to go home this weekend.
Villanova, No. 2 seed
It’s another solid regular season for the Wildcats. That doesn’t mean anything when this time of the season rolls around.
Head coach Jay Wright has made Villanova relevant in pretty much every season he’s been at the helm for the Wildcats. This season was once again a year the Wildcats eclipsed more than 20 wins, the 11th time in 15 seasons that’s happened at Villanova for Wright.
Despite the gaudy records, Wright and his Wildcats haven’t been able to do much when it really mattered. Wright has been to the Final Four only once in his career, and despite all those high seeds, he’s failed to make it out of the first weekend more often than making it to the Sweet Sixteen and beyond.
He’s been to the second weekend four times, while losing in either the first or second round six times. And that trend has haunted him more recently. Since reaching the Final Four in 2009, Villanova has been to the NCAA tournament five times. They’re still looking for their first trip to the second weekend since that time.
I don’t trust the Wildcats during this time of the year. It’s been a great journey to get to this place, but I’m selling their stock this week.
Miami, No. 3 seed
It’s not always about the matchup in the NCAA tournament, but in this case, I’m not liking what I see for the Hurricanes.
It’s not about Buffalo. The Hurricanes shouldn’t have much trouble with the Bulls. It’s the second round, where either Arizona or Wichita State will likely greet the Hurricanes. The Shockers are more experienced than any other team in the tournament. And if they don’t make it, it’s looking like the Wildcats, which are my dark horse to make it to the Elite Eight. Arizona can stop Miami and can rebound the basketball as well as any team in the country.
Despite the opposition, sometimes I’ve just been concerned about Miami’s ability to beat good teams. Ignore the final score in the Virginia game in the ACC tournament. That was well in hand by the Cavaliers. And while they have some nice wins, like against Notre Dame, Virginia and Louisville in consecutive games, those were sandwiched between bad losses against North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
If their defense isn’t engaged, then the Hurricanes have real problems. In games they lost in the regular season, they allowed more than 75 points in all but one of those six losses. In their regular-season wins, they allowed more than 75 points twice in 24 games.
I don’t see the Hurricanes having the ability to stop the opposition enough to make it to next weekend.
California, No. 4 seed
I know everyone’s expecting the Golden Bears to compete against Kansas. And maybe if California makes it to the Sweet Sixteen, we’ll see if that’s possible.
Despite all the talent for the Golden Bears, it doesn’t erase the fact that Maryland will stand in their way in the second round. And I’m not sure if that matchup will occur.
Hawaii will give California trouble. Nine players average double-digit minutes for the Rainbow Warriors, with three players averaging in double figures. Hawaii can score with any team in the country and in two games earlier this season against Texas Tech and Oklahoma, they competed well to the tune of losing by a combined 11 points. Outside of those top-three scorers, there are several other players capable of scoring.
California finished the season on a high note, but I’m a little concerned with the Golden Bears’ ability to score. Five players average double figures in points, but beyond that, there’s a lack of scoring ability.
They rely on those five players for the majority of their points and minutes. If foul trouble occurs, then I doubt California will be able to withstand the issues presented by that setback.
The Golden Bears have talent, but depth is concern. And in the NCAA tournament, depth can play a critical role in advancing.
