Underdogs are always the favorites when the brackets come out for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. It’s not always wise to put all your eggs in the underdogs basket in the first round, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t risk a few games on Cinderella.
Upsets are going to happen. They aren’t as prevalent as many would like you to believe, but there are always the surprise teams that come out of nowhere to shock the nation. I’m banking more on the upsets occurring in the second round, but there’s still some teams to like in the first round as a double-digit seed.
Here are three teams to not ignore as an 11-seed or below.
Gonzaga, No. 11 seed
One of the original Cinderellas is a double-digit seed with a talent level similar to a top seed. The biggest issue with the Bulldogs have been injuries.
And the losses haven’t been bad for the Bulldogs. Gonzaga’s only questionable loss was to UCLA, and that was early enough in the season that I’m not concerned about it.
The Bulldogs drew a tough assignment in Seton Hall, which just won the Big East tournament. But I don’t see the Pirates able to match up well with Gonzaga. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis average 20 and 17 points per game respectively and I can’t imagine the Pirates will be able to slow down Gonzaga enough to pull this out.
The Bulldogs rank in the top-30 for scoring offense, averaging almost 80 points per game, and rank in the top-50 in scoring defense. Seton Hall has talent, but it’s young enough that it won’t be able to beat the experienced Bulldogs. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzaga gets the edge in the opening line by oddsmakers.
Stephen F. Austin, No. 14 seed
I’m surprised with all the recent success of S.F. Austin that it was labeled as a 14th seed. And while I’m writing about the Lumberjacks, it doesn’t necessarily mean I’m going with them in the first round. It just means that I won’t be surprised if they compete.
That’s basically my disclaimer based on a bad matchup for the Lumberjacks. West Virginia is basically Stephen F. Austin as a power-five conference team. This game could be one of the ugliest or best games of the first round.
West Virginia turns over teams better than any team in the nation, averaging 9.9 steals per game. S.F. Austin isn’t far behind, ranked seventh in the nation at 9.1 steals per game.
This will be an up and down game featuring teams that don’t do much in the half-court. Had the Mountaineers played a team that likes to force a slower pace, I may have been more apt to put the Mountaineers on serious upset alert in the first round.
However, I’m just putting them slightly on the map based on Stephen F. Austin’s recent history.
The Lumberjacks have registered dominant records recently, losing one game in their conference in the last three years. They’ve also been in the Big Dance in the past three years, winning a game two years ago against VCU. Last year, S.F. Austin lost by seven points against fifth-seeded Utah.
I like the experience. And I like the ability to play the style that West Virginia will force them to play. I’m expecting this to be a solid game, and whatever the spread is when it opens, I’m likely taking the Lumberjacks against the number.
Northern Iowa, No. 11 seed
Texas just doesn’t do much for me. That’s the Panthers’ first-round opponent, and I’m not sold on the Longhorns. Shaka Smart has been a quality head coach in March, but he’s still a few years away from making the Longhorns a top-tier team.
Despite being at a disadvantage in the talent department, UNI has shown this year to not back down against talent-laden teams. This is the team that beat North Carolina and Iowa State this year, teams seeded first and fourth, respectively.
This is also a team that has lost to Loyola twice. So the consistency hasn’t been there against lesser opponents. That’s OK now, though, because the Panthers won’t have trouble getting up for these games.
The Panthers showed me enough during the regular season and in the conference tournament that it can compete at a high level. That’s what helps predict upsets. The Panthers won’t back down against the Longhorns and I like the roll the Panthers are on now. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this line is in the low single digits.
