The NCAA tournament committee handed Oklahoma plenty of favors in the West.
The Sooners are matched with the winner of Oregon State and VCU, so they should have an easier path to the Sweet 16. Once out of the first weekend, the Sweet 16 will likely feature Texas A&M or Texas, two teams that fail in comparison to talent-level to the Sooners.
In the Elite Eight, it’s likely either Oregon or Duke, which should be a difficult game, but once again, in terms of experience and talent, the Sooners should have the edge.
In the first round, there are some spreads to exploit in the West region, so I’m breaking down the two best bets for the West’s first round.
VCU (-4.5) vs. Oregon State
The committee loved the Pac-12. I’m not that infatuated with the conference.
And it appears the betting public is backing the Rams. VCU has jumped from an opening-line favorite of 3 points to 4.5 points in anticipation of this one-sided contest.
Melvin Johnson can dominate in the points department and will be a monster to stop for the Beavers. Johnson averages 17.4 points per game for the team that tied for first in the Atlantic-10.
The Rams have speed and can force turnovers. The team is sixth in the nation in steals and is a top-60 defense in points per game.
I know Oregon State’s Gary Payton II is one of the better guards in the nation, but the Beavers aren’t used to facing such pressure. Also, with Tes Tinkle’s injury, that puts Oregon State at a disadvantage. — Go chalk with VCU
Yale (+6) vs. Baylor
Baylor can be really good. The problem is that they play down to their competition.
The Bears have the talent to match up to pretty much any team. But there’s always those game where they might not come ready to play. Just look at last year’s early exit from the NCAA tournament.
This is one of those games. I’m still thinking the Bears win the game, but this will come down to the final minutes, making it realistic the Bulldogs will cover the spread.
The Bulldogs will have to shoot extremely well to stay in this game to match up with the Bears’ size advantage. But I think they can. They can’t match up down low, but that’s not a problem. Senior forward Justin Sears will have his hands full, but he was Ivy League Player of the Year for a reason.
Don’t count out the Bulldogs in a close contest. — Go against the chalk with Yale
