Sure, Alabama is the safest bet to go to the college football playoff and to win the national championship. But don’t be so quick with taking the Crimson Tide at +225.
According to Oddsshark, the Crimson Tide own the best odds to win the national title. We can’t blame people for wanting to put money on Alabama either. The team has looked like the best team in the country toward the latter part of the season and we haven’t seen any other teams to have that much balance on both sides of the ball.
But be careful with taking the favorite. Alabama still has two more difficult games before even reaching the College Football Playoff.
This week’s matchup at Auburn won’t be easy. The Tigers are only 3-3 straight up in the last six games, but they’ve competed in each of those contests, and games have generally come down to the final whistle in the losses.
And then there’s a SEC championship game after that game. There’s still two big hurdles for the Crimson Tide to jump through, and if they lose one of those games, it will be an uphill climb for Alabama to reach the final four.
Go ahead and put some money on the Tide. It’s by far the safest bet. But don’t forget about these long-shot bets when picking the national title winner.
Florida Gators +1400
Forget about this past week. The Gators are still a SEC team and the committee will likely have the same bias that many in the national media do when it comes to the conference down south.
That conference just hasn’t been near as good this season (see last week with two overtime games and a loss to low-level competition), but it’s still considered the “big boy” conference to those who spew opinions on a daily basis.
That’s why we’re not dismissing Florida, even though it almost lost to Florida Atlantic, which entered Saturday’s game against the Gators as winners of one of their previous six games.
The Gators have some serious issues, but there are games still in front of them to propel them to the final four. This week’s game against Florida State will be a dogfight, but what have the Seminoles done this season? The best win on Florida State’s resume is maybe Louisville. Go ahead and look at the schedule and see for yourself how awful the competition is in the ACC.
The Gators also will play in the SEC title game, which will be against the Crimson Tide. Wins against Florida State and Alabama in the season’s final weeks would no doubt propel a one-loss SEC conference champion to the playoff.
We’re not sure if Florida can get the job done, but the opportunities will be plenty to reach the top-four, and the value is great for bettors.
Michigan State Spartans +4000
We’re not sure if you can still get this price, but according to Oddsshark, this is still the posted odds for the Spartans.
Michigan State likely has the inside track to the CFP after upsetting Ohio State. The Spartans’ resume includes wins against Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan. And if the Spartans were in discussion for a bid to the CFP, then it also would include a victory against Iowa, which would enter the Big 10 Championship game as either undefeated or with one loss.
So, the Spartans probably give the best value at this spot, but we can’t see that number staying this way for long. Michigan State still has a tough game ahead of it against Penn State. The Nittany Lions have been a major disappointment, but there’s still enough there to get an upset over a Michigan State that could experience a letdown.
When picking a sleeper for the national title, bettors have to hope to just get into the playoff. With that resume, we don’t see the Spartans losing out on a bid if they take care of business in the next two weeks.
Baylor Bears +5000
This would require some chaos, but with a number that high, the Bears may be worth a small bet.
Let’s say the SEC, Clemson and the Big 10 get into the playoff. That gives us three teams.
Now, we’ll assume Oklahoma State beats the Sooners, while the Bears finish the season undefeated. We’ll also assume Stanford defeats Notre Dame this weekend, putting the Irish out of contention for the playoff.
As long as the committee doesn’t leapfrog the Cardinals, with two losses, over the Bears, then Baylor would have the inside track at the playoff.
That will take a little bit, but it’s not far off. The Irish are underdogs this weekend at Stanford and the Sooners are barely more than a field-goal favorite at Oklahoma State.
And Baylor is a favorite this weekend at TCU. So, although it does appear like a lot needs to happen, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. And with that return on investment, it’s worth a shot.
